The #14 overall Penn State Nittany Lions (6-2) head to the Big House this weekend for a showdown with the #5 overall Michigan Wolverines (7-1). Kickoff is set for 3:45 PM EST at Michigan Stadium and the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Taking a look at the Week 10 college football odds, Michigan opened as a 10.5-point home favorite earlier this week. That line has remained unchanged after early betting, as the Wolverines are currently listed at -10. The total for the game is sitting at 51 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Michigan vs Penn State
Penn State improved to 6-2 on the season in Week 9 after an impressive 30-24 victory over #19 Iowa last weekend. It was a gutsy effort by QB Trace McSorley, who had a key 51 yard rushing touchdown after being forced to leave the game for several snaps after getting banged up repeatedly by a tough Hawkeyes defense. McSorley has had an up and down season thus far, throwing for 1,628 yards and 12 touchdowns while completing just 52.8% of his passes. He has had a ton of help from a powerful Nittany Lion rushing attack that is averaging 225.3 yards per game. RB Miles Sanders has been outstanding, racking up 834 yards and eight touchdowns in eight games. As a whole, Penn State is currently averaging 41.0 points per game (12th overall) on 459.5 yards of total offense (27th overall).
Things have also looked fairly solid on the other side of the ball, as the Nittany Lions are currently giving up an average of 22.3 points per game on 386.8 total yards of offense. However, they have been a bit susceptible against the run, as opponents are currently averaging 161.4 yards per game on the ground (69th overall).
Michigan won their seventh consecutive game to improve to 7-1 after a tough 24-17 Week 1 loss to Notre Dame. The Wolverines are really playing inspired football right now, as their 21-7 Week 8 victory over a quality Michigan State team was certainly a big statement. With their bye week in the rear-view, Michigan is now getting ready for a tough stretch of the schedule that includes games against Penn State and Ohio State. QB Shea Patterson has thrown for 1,523 yards and 12 touchdowns while completing 67.2% of his passes. Patterson has at least two touchdown passes in nine of his last fifteen games. Like the Nittany Lions, the Wolverines have really been impressive on the ground, averaging 212.7 yards per game. RB Karan Higdon has already rushed for 831 yards and 6 touchdowns so far this season. Overall, Michigan is currently averaging 36.0 points per game (27th overall) on 420.4 total yards of offense.
The Wolverines have been one of the best defensive teams in the entire country, as they are holding opponents to just 14.4 points per game on 220 yards of total offense. Michigan has been unbelievable against the run, giving up an average of just 97.1 yards per game on the ground (9th overall). They have somehow been even better against the pass, as they currently have the best passing defense nationwide and have limited opponents to only 122.9 yards per game through the air.
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: Michigan -10
There will likely be no shortage of great plays on both sides of the ball in this particular matchup, as both teams have really looked strong offensively and defensively. Michigan has been putting on a show on defense all season long, so it should be really interesting to see how this high-flying Penn State offense handles such a difficult challenge here in Week 10. While this one should stay close for the first couple of quarters, I think the Nittany Lions somewhat average defense could be in for a long afternoon on Saturday. They are currently giving up more than 22 points per game, which is a full touchdown more than the Wolverines have been allowing.
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The away team is just 1-5 ATS over their past six meetings between these two teams, which certainly bodes well for Michigan. The Wolverines are also 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games and 6-1 ATS over their last seven home games. Penn State is just 5-12 overall in their last 17 games against Michigan and a dreadful 1-7 overall in their last 17 trips to the Big House.
I really think that the Wolverines will make a big statement at home this weekend as they attempt to secure a spot in the College Football Playoff. If they can find a way to get through Penn State here in Week 10, things should be all clear until a Week 14 showdown with Ohio State. In any event, the Nittany Lions just don’t have a strong enough defense to hang tough for four quarters – especially on the road. I’m laying the points all day in this spot – I’ll take Michigan to cover and win by double-digits.