The Penn State Nittany Lions will look to bounce back from last week’s disappointing loss when they visit the Michigan State Spartans. Kickoff is at noon on Saturday, November 4 at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan. The game will be televised nationally on Fox.
Penn State is listed as a 7.5-point favorite on the road. However, the Nittany Lions opened at -13, so early betting has heavily favored the Spartans. The over/under for the game is 48 points. Click here for a full list of Week 10 betting odds and links to game previews.
Penn State vs Michigan State Vegas Game Odds & Betting Predictions
The Nittany Lions have dropped to no. 7 in the polls after last week’s loss to Ohio State. Penn State started fast and was in control for much of the game. However, the Nittany Lions left the door open for the Buckeyes to come storming back in the 4th quarter.
The loss will make it difficult for the Nittany Lions to reach the Big Ten title game. It also puts Penn State on the outside of the College Football Playoff. They’ll need to win out and get some help to end up in the Playoff this year.
Of course, no. 24 Michigan State is also coming off a disappointing loss. The Spartans made a great comeback to force overtime against Northwestern, only to fall to the Wildcats after three overtime periods.
Unlike Penn State, the Spartans still control their own destiny in the Big Ten. If Michigan State can beat Penn State this week and Ohio State next week, they’ll have the inside track on reaching the Big Ten Championship Game and throw a huge wrench into the College Football Playoff.
College Football Free Pick Against the Spread: Penn State -7.5
Forget about the Spartans causing chaos in the Big Ten or in the Playoff. There’s no need to overreact after Penn State’s loss last week. The Nittany Lions are still one of the top teams in the country. With the spread coming down dramatically, I’ll glad lean toward Penn State to cover 7.5 points, even on the road.
Michigan State looked far worse last week than Penn State did. The Spartans have had a lot of trouble running the ball effectively the last two weeks against Indiana and Northwestern. That’s unlikely to get much better against Penn State’s defense. If MSU can’t run the ball, it puts too much pressure on Brian Lewerke, who posted big numbers last week in triple-overtime but typically doesn’t put up monster numbers against quality teams.
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Lewerke has only exceeded 30 pass attempts three times this season, with the Spartans losing two of those games. If the Penn State defense can stuff the run and force Lewerke to beat them with his arm, the Nittany Lions will be in good shape.
It’s also unlikely that the Michigan State defense will be able to replicate what the Ohio State defense did against the Nittany Lions in the 2nd half last week. The Spartans are solid defensively, but they don’t have the same caliber of pass rushers as Ohio State. The MSU defense will also have to find a way to keep Saquon Barkley contained for four quarters, something few teams have done this year.
Ultimately, I have a lot more faith in Penn State bouncing back than I do Michigan State. The Spartans have four Big Ten wins this season, but all have been one-possession games against teams that are average at best. They’re not at the same level as Penn State. I have confidence that the Nittany Lions will bounce back strong and beat the Spartans comfortably.