The Purdue Boilermakers (1-3) head to University Park this weekend for a BIG 10 battle against the #12 overall Penn State Nittany Lions (4-0). Kickoff is set for 12:00 PM EST on Saturday, October 5th at Beaver Stadium and the game will be televised on ESPN.
Taking a look at the Week 6 college football odds, Penn State opened as a 24-point home favorite earlier this week. That spread has increased by two full points after early betting, as the Nittany Lions are currently listed at -26. The total for the game is sitting at 57 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Penn State vs Purdue
Purdue lost their second game in a row last weekend, falling 38-31 at home to Minnesota to drop to just 1-3 overall on the season. The Boilermakers got outscored 28-10 in the first half and never recovered, eventually coming up just a touchdown short after scoring 14 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. QB Jack Plummer was 23/41 for 245 yards and two touchdowns, although he also got picked off twice. RB King Doerue had a big outing on the ground, rushing for 94 yards and scoring two touchdowns. David Bell led the way for the receiving corps, hauling in eight passes for 114 yards. Overall, Purdue generated over 400 total yards of offense and scored four touchdowns.
The Boilermakers defense didn’t have a great outing against the Golden Gophers, giving up almost 500 total yards of offense and five touchdowns. Purdue was especially bad defending against the pass, as Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan completed 21/22 throwing attempts for 396 yards and four touchdowns.
Penn State is still perfect through their first four games of the regular season, as they crushed Maryland 59-0 on the road last weekend to move to 4-0 overall. The Nittany Lions scored 38 consecutive points in the first half against the Terps to put the game out of reach early. QB Sean Clifford was 26/31 for 398 yards and three touchdowns through the air. Clifford also led the way on the ground, rushing for 54 yards and a touchdown on seven carries. WR KJ Hamler also turned in a solid performance, making six receptions for 108 yards and a touchdown. As a whole, Penn State gained well over 600 total yards of offense and scored eight touchdowns against a shell-shocked Maryland defense.
The Nittany Lions were outstanding defensively in Week 5, completing shutting out the Terrapins on offense and surrendering well under 150 total yards. Penn State was especially impressive against the pass, as Maryland managed just 68 total yards through the air despite 24 throwing attempts.
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: Penn State -26
While I obviously would have loved to nab the Nittany Lions when they opened up at -24, I still think there is enough value to take Penn State to cover the spread here in Week 6. Purdue has really been disappointing so far this season, winning just one game and losing by a combined 28 points over their last two outings. While there seven-point defeat against Minnesota last weekend was at least somewhat respectable, they really played poorly against TCU in Week 3 en route to a 21-point loss. On the other side, Penn State has still yet to lose a game all year and is averaging exactly 50 points per game over that same time span. They are also quite solid defensively, giving up just 30 points combined since Week 1. The Nittany Lions have also yet to give up more than 13 points in a single game, which certainly doesn’t bode well for the Purdue offense this weekend – especially on the road.
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The Boilermakers are just 1-4 against the spread over their last five games. They are also only 2-4 ATS in their last six meetings with a BIG 10 opponent. Penn State is a solid 3-1 against the spread in their last four games overall. The Nittany Lions have also owned this matchup as of late, going 10-3-1 against the spread over their last 14 meetings with Purdue. There is no doubt that Penn State is the vastly superior team on both sides of the ball, and I would be highly surprised if this game wasn’t already basically over by the start of the third quarter. I’ll lay the points and roll with the big home favorite in this particular spot – give me the Nittany Lions to cover.