The North Carolina Tar Heels (4-5) travel to Pennsylvania on Thursday for an all-ACC clash with the Pitt Panthers (6-3). Kickoff is set for 8:00 PM EST on November 14th at Heinz Field and the game will be televised on ESPN.
Taking a look at the Week 12 college football odds, Pitt opened as a 4.5-point home favorite earlier this week. The spread hasn’t moved at all after early betting, as the Panthers are currently available at -4.5. The total for the game is sitting at 50.5 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Pitt vs North Carolina
North Carolina dropped back below the .500 mark their last time out, falling 38-31 at home against Virginia to move to 4-5 overall. The Tar Heels gave up three touchdowns in the third quarter and never recovered, coming up a touchdown short on the scoreboard after getting completely shutout over the final 15 minutes of the game. QB Sam Howell certainly did his part, going 15/29 for 353 passing yards and four touchdowns through the air. RB Javonte Williams led the way on the ground, rushing for 98 yards on a team-high 16 carries. WR Dyami Brown torched the Cavaliers secondary, exploding for 202 receiving yards and three touchdowns on six catches. As a whole, North Carolina generated just under 550 total yards of offense and scored four touchdowns in the loss.
The Tar Heels didn’t have a very good outing on the other side of the ball against Virginia, surrendering well over 500 total yards of offense and five touchdowns. UNC had no answer for Cavaliers QB Bryce Perkins, as he through for 378 passing yards and three touchdowns while also adding 112 rushing yards and two scores on the ground.
Pitt has now won two out of their last three games after beating Georgia Tech 20-10 in Week 10 to move to 6-3 on the season overall. The Panthers scored 10 unanswered points in the first quarter and never looked back, holding the Yellow Jackets to just a single field goal over the final 30 minutes of the game. QB Kenny Pickett wasn’t at his best, going 25/34 for 204 passing yards and a touchdown while also getting picked off twice. Vincent Davis found the end zone on the ground, hitting pay dirt on one of his six carries for 67 yards. Maurice Ffrench led the way for the receiving corps, hauling in 11 catches for 71 yards. Overall, Pitt gained over 350 total yards of offense and scored two touchdowns in the win.
The Panthers were extremely solid defensively against Georgia Tech, giving up just one touchdown all game. Pittsburgh was especially impressive defending against the run, giving up only 86 yards on almost 30 rushing attempts.
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: UNC +4.5
This is shaping up to be a very entertaining battle between two pretty evenly matched ACC Coastal schools that have gone a combined 10-8 straight up so far this season. While I certainly understand why Pitt is favored at home here in Week 12, I’m not so sure that I want to lay almost 4.5 points in a game that could easily go either way. Of course, the Panthers have the better record overall and have also fared a little bit better against the spread, covering the number in six out of their first nine games. However, Pittsburgh has also failed to win a single game by more than points and also has three victories that came by a field goal or less.
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The Tar Heels have also dominated this particular matchup as of late, going a very impressive 5-1 against the spread over the last six meetings between these two ACC Coastal rivals. They are also a perfect 6-0 outright over their last six meetings with the Panthers overall. On the other side, Pitt hasn’t been all that great at Heinz Field so far this season, covering the number in only two out of their last five home games. The Panthers are also only 1-2 against the spread over their last three games against UNC. Ultimately, I would much rather take a shot with the 4.5 points and roll with the slight road underdog. North Carolina could find a way to win this game outright, but even if they don’t, they should find a way to grind out a tough road cover. Give me the Tar Heels and the points!