This Saturday the Iowa Hawkeyes (6-4, 3-4 Big Ten) will host the Purdue Boilermakers (4-6, 2-5 Big Ten). Kickoff is set for 3:30 EST at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City and will be televised on the Big Ten Network.
Oddsmakers currently have the Hawkeyes listed as a 8.5-point home favorite with the total set at 43 points. Click here for a full look at the Week 12 betting schedule, plus more links to our individual game previews.
Purdue vs Iowa Vegas Game Odds & Betting Preview
The Boilermakers come into this one off a 13-23 road loss to Northwestern as a 6.5-point underdog. Purdue is just 1-4 SU in their last 5 games and have failed to cover in 3 of their last 4. The offense simply took too long to get going against the Wildcats, as it was 20-0 before the Boilermakers finally found the end zone in the final minutes of the 1st half.
The Hawkeyes enter off an ugly 14-38 loss at undefeated Wisconsin, where they didn’t come close to covering as a 13-point underdog. Iowa’s offense was a complete no show after putting up 55 on Ohio State the week before. The Hawkeyes managed just 66 total yards for the game and the only two scores came on interceptions returned for a touchdown.
This series has been dominated by Iowa of late. The Hawkeyes won 49-35 at Purdue last year as a 11-point favorite. Their 4th straight win in the series, all of which have come by at least 14 points.
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: Purdue +8.5
I would have to lean towards taking the points with the Boilermakers in this one. Purdue is a team that I have been on quite a bit this season and a big reason for that is the big improvements I was expecting under new head coach Jeff Brohm. While the wins have been tough to come by of late, this team could easily be sitting at 6-4 and 4-3 in league play. They only lost at Wisconsin by a final of 9-17 and have two conference defeats by a combined 3 points against Rutgers and Nebraska.
Click on the link for more free college football picks from our experts on staff.
Not only do I think Purdue has a good chance of keeping this within the number, I wouldn’t be shocked if they won this game outright. That’s because this is not an ideal spot for Iowa coming off those two huge games against Ohio State and Wisconsin. Not to mention a big rivalry game on deck to close out the year at Nebraska looming next Friday. I just think it’s going to be hard for them to give the Boilermakers their full attention, especially given how lopsided the series has been.
Purdue on the other hand should lay it all on the line in this one. Sitting at 4-6, the Boilermakers need to win their final two games to become bowl eligible. Getting to a bowl game is a big deal for this team, as they haven’t been to one since 2012.
The other thing here is Iowa is a team that more times than not find themselves in close games and rarely do they blow teams out unless there’s a big gap in talent. I just don’t think Purdue is one of those teams that they have a massive edge against.
Lastly, there’s a good chance this is a low-scoring game, which makes the points that much more valuable. Sure Iowa put up 55 in their last home against Ohio State, but after watching the Buckeyes thrashing of Michigan State, I think that was clearly more of Ohio State not showing up to play. After their 14-points against Wisconsin, all via the defense, the Hawkeyes have now scored 17 or fewer points in 5 of their 7 Big Ten games. The only other exception against the worst team in the league in Illinois.
This is also a spot Iowa has struggled in, as they are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. On the flip side of this, Purdue is 10-2-2 ATS in their last 14 road games against a team with a winning home record. Give me the Boilermakers.