The San Francisco 49ers (1-7) are set to host the Oakland Raiders (1-6) on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:20 EST at Levi’s Stadium and will be televised on both FOX and NFL Network.
Taking a look at the Week 9 NFL odds, the books have the 49ers currently listed as a 3-point home favorite with the total set for 46.5 points.
Vegas Game Odds & Betting Preview: Raiders vs 49ers
Oakland comes into this one off a 42-28 home loss to the Raiders as a 3.5-point underdog. The final score makes it appear like Indianapolis dominated the game, but Oakland actually had a 28-21 lead going into the 4th quarter. That’s now 3 straight losses for the Raiders by at least two touchdowns and at 1-6, there season is all but a lost cause at this point.
It’s a similar story in San Francisco, where the 49ers are coming off a crushing 18-15 loss to the Cardinals in Arizona. San Francisco had a 15-3 lead with just a little over 13 minutes to play in the 4th quarter, only two give up two scoring drives, including the game-winning touchdown with just 34 seconds to play. That’s now six straight losses for the 49ers, who have turned into a complete mess since the season-ending injury to Jimmy Garoppolo.
Free NFL Pick & Betting Predictions: OVER 46.5
If I had to take a side here, I would roll the dice with the 49ers, simply because I think they are the more talented team and are playing at home. With that said, I don’t know how you can trust a team that has lost two games to the Cardinals and has a bunch of keys guys out with injuries. My strongest lean here would have to be the OVER at 46.5.
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I’ve recommended the OVER in every single Thursday Night game since Week 2, which is when the teams first have to play these games on just 3-days rest. All but one of them have finished OVER the total and that one just missed out by a single point. Many of the ones that have hit haven’t even been close. I could definitely see this one between the 49ers and Raiders flying over the total. W
hat’s the real incentive for either of these teams right now? Oakland is trading away their best players for future draft picks and the 49ers season was over as soon as Garoppolo went down. The best strategy for both teams is certainly to not win games, as they are much better off tanking for a better draft pick. I know that doesn’t happen in the NFL like it does in the NBA, but I think we are starting to see the league trend more that way. We are definitely seeing a lot more action at the trade deadline than we have in the past.
The road team is always at a disadvantage in these games and the Raiders defense couldn’t be playing much worse. Oakland is dead last in the NFL against the run, giving up 144.7 ypg. San Francisco is 21st against the pass (275.5 ypg) and 13th against the run (102.9 ypg), but keep in mind they have played Arizona’s anemic offense twice. They also might be without linebacker Reuben Foster, corner Richard Sherman and safety Jaquiski Tartt. All of which are questionable to play.
The other key here is that these two teams have some decent talent on the offensive side of the ball. I think both teams have a realistic shot here of scoring somewhere between 27-34 points and all we need is for something like 27-20 to cash a winning ticket.
Lastly, there’s a great system in play. The Over is 64-29 (69%) over the last 10 seasons in non-conference games, where one team (49ers) is off a division loss by 7-points or less. Give me the Over 46.5!