This Sunday the Denver Broncos (2-3) will host the Los Angeles Rams (5-0). Kickoff is set for 4:05 EST at Mile High and will be televised locally on FOX.

Taking a look at the Week 6 NFL betting odds, the books have the Rams listed as a 7-point road favorite with the total currently sitting at 52 points.

Vegas Game Odds & Betting Preview: Rams vs Broncos

Los Angeles enters off a hard fought 33-31 division road win over the Seahawks. The Rams, who were a touchdown favorite, never led by more than 3-points. It was another fine showing by the LA’s offense, which has scored at least 33 points in every game this season. Jared Goff threw for 321 yards and Todd Gurley added 3 rushing touchdowns in the win.

Denver enters off an embracing 34-16 road loss to the Jets in a game that went off as a pick’em. That’s now 3 straight losses for the Broncos after that 2-0 start to the season. It was bad all around for Denver, as they gave up over 500 yards of offense and had just 10 points with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter.

NFL Betting Predictions & Free Pick: OVER 52

I really want to take the 7-points with the Broncos, as this just feels like a great spot to back Denver with their backs against the wall after losing 3 straight and LA nearly losing outright at Seattle last week. For me, I just don’t love betting against the elite teams, especially off a poor showing, and there’s no question the Rams are one of the best teams in the league.

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I instead feel the best value here is on the OVER 52. I want to start off by saying, I’m well aware of the fact that it’s expected to be below-freezing with a chance of snow. Everyone overreacts when they see snow in the forecast and just assume it’s going to lead to a low-scoring game. I would much rather play in snow than rain, plus it’s the games with the strong winds that really impact the scoring. In fact, a lot of times, snow on the field really makes things tough for the defense, as they have to try and react to the offensive player.

The other thing here is that we can expect the Rams offense to be near full strength, as wide outs Cooper Kupp and Brandin Cooks are both expected to clear concussion protocol by Sunday. When this offense has all it’s weapons, it’s one of the best in the league. Not only are they averaging 34.6 ppg, but they haven’t scored fewer than 33 in any single contest.

Denver is perceived to be this great defensive team, but that’s just not the case with this team. The Broncos are T-23rd in scoring defense (26.2 ppg) and are 26th in total defense (395.8 ypg). I get it was a letdown spot, but they just gave up 512 total yards to the Jets and 34 points to a NY team that hadn’t scored more than 17 in each of their previous 3 games.

Hard to get to 50+ points without both teams scoring and I’m confident Denver’s offense being able to contribute enough to push this OVER the mark. While the Broncos are just 27th in scoring at 20.0 ppg, they are 12th in the NFL in total offense at 393.8 ypg. I think playing at home against what figures to be a fatigued Rams defense that is still without one of their best players in corner Aqib Talib, will definitely help the Broncos offense get going.

I also think the last few weeks we have seen the true colors of this LA defense and how they can be exploited. Twice this season the Rams have allowed an opposing quarterback to throw for 300 yards and twice they have allowed teams to run for at least 140 yards. Denver has the 3rd ranked rushing attack, which I think is huge, as it will allow Case Keenum and that offense to play in front of the chains. Look for Denver to take some shots on 2nd and short and pick up some big plays via play action.

OVER is 10-2 in the Rams last 12 off a division game and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 off a win against a division rival. OVER is also 25-9 in the Broncos last 34 games against a team that is averaging 29+ ppg. Take the OVER!