This Sunday the Tennessee Titans (8-6) will host the Los Angeles Rams (10-4). Kickoff is set for 1:00 EST on Christmas Eve at Nissan Stadium and will be televised locally on FOX.

Oddsmakers currently have Los Angeles listed as a 6.5-point road favorite with the total set at 48.5 points. Check out our Week 16 NFL odds page for a full betting schedule and for more links to our game previews.

Rams vs Titans Vegas Game Odds & Betting Preview

Los Angeles comes in off one of the most impressive performances of the season. The Rams went on the road an annihilated division rival Seattle 42-7. They ended up closing as a 1-point favorite, but were around a 2.5-point dog for most of the week. With the win LA took a commanding 2-games lead over the Seahawks for the NFC West title. One win by the Rams or one Seattle loss in the final two weeks would lock up the division title for Los Angeles.

Tennessee’s playoff hopes took a big hit this past Sunday, as the Titans fell 23-25 at San Francisco. Like the Rams, it all depended on when you bet on Tennessee, as they closed as a 2.5-point dog but were a shorter dog earlier in the week. Not all is lost for the Titans. They still have an outside shot at winning the AFC South (need Jaguars to lose at 49ers this week and beat them at home in Week 17) and are tied with the Ravens and Bills in the AFC Wild Card race (as of right now they own the tiebreaker on both teams).

NFL Betting Predictions & Free ATS Pick: Titans +6.5

I would have to lean towards taking the Tennessee catching almost a touchdown on their home field in this one. As much as I like this Rams team, I think we are seeing a big overreaction here with this line based of LA’s result last week at Seattle. Keep in mind that the Rams caught the Seahawks at the perfect time, as they were without their top two linebacker in K.J. Wright and Bobby Wagner, on top of already being without the likes of Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman.

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What can’t be overlooked is just how big a game that was for the Rams in their quest for winning the NFC West title. I think there’s a decent chance we see Los Angeles suffer a letdown here on the road against the Titans, especially given that there’s no pressure for them to win this game. Even with a loss they can secure up the division at home next week against the 49ers. At the same time, there’s a good chance the Seahawks lose at Dallas, which would also do the trick.

On the flip side of this, this couldn’t be a much bigger game for the Titans, who simply can’t afford a loss with where they are sitting in the standings. At the same time, you can’t overreact to the fact that Tennessee is coming off back-to-back losses at Arizona and San Francisco, who are two teams out of the playoff picture. The Titans simply are a different team at home than they are on the road. Tennessee is 5-1 at home compared to just 3-5 on the road. The last time the Titans lost on their home field was Week 1 against the Raiders.

While the Rams aren’t just a team that relies on their ability to run the football, they are at their best offensively when Gurley is picking up big yards on the ground. I think that makes this a good matchup for Tennessee, as the strength of their defense is stopping the run. The Titans are ranked 5th in the NFL, allowing just 87 rushing yards/game and are even better at home, where they are allowing just 74 yards/game and just 3.4 yards/carry.

There’s also a strong system in play favoring a fade of the Rams in this spot. Road favorites who are averaging 27+ points/game on the season are just 20-46 (30%) ATS after a game in which they led by 21 or more points at the half since 1983. That’s a 70% system backing the Titans to at least cover this spread. Give me the Titans +6.5!