This Saturday the Philadelphia Eagles (6-8) will host the Washington Redskins (7-7) in a huge NFC East showdown. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:25 EST at Lincoln Financial Field and will be televised on the NFL Network. Taking a look at our Week 16 NFL betting lines, oddsmakers currently have the Eagles listed as a 3-point home favorite with the total set at 48 points.
Philadelphia comes into this game looking to rebound from an ugly 17-40 home loss to the Cardinals on Sunday Night Football as a 3.5-point underdog. Washington on the other hand will be looking to build on a 35-25 home win over the Bills as a 2.5-point underdog.
While the Redskins can clinch the NFC East with a win over the Eagles, Philadelphia would need to win their final two games to make the playoffs as a division champ. Washington won the first meeting between these two teams 23-20 as a 3-point home dog back in Week 4.
Early Lean on Eagles -3
The betting public is going to want nothing to do with the Eagles in this game after watching them get embarrassed on their home field in a nationally televised game in Week 15. As a result, I think we are getting some great value here with Philadelphia laying just 3-points at home against the Redskins.
Washington is just 1-5 on the road this season and their lone win came against the Bears, which they were fortunate to win 24-21. Chicago actually outgained them on the game and would have sent the game to overtime had it not been for a late field goal miss by the normally sure-footed Robbie Gould.
While it certainly doesn’t look good getting blown out by the Cardinals on your home field with so much at stake, you can’t overreact to the Eagles getting beat by a much better football team. You have to keep in mind that prior to that contest Philadelphia had won back-to-back games, including an impressive 35-28 victory at New England as a 9.5-point dog.
The Eagles are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games off a game where they allowed 35 or more points, 21-8 ATS in their last 29 off a loss by 21 or more points and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after a game where they had a turnover margin of -4 or worse.
One thing you have to like about backing the Eagles at home at the current line, is the fact that the home team has won 4 straight in the series. You also have to like Philadelphia playing with revenge after that earlier loss to the Redskins in Washington. Keep in mind the Eagles are a strong 16-6 ATS in their last 22 when revenging a close loss by 3 points or less.
This is also a great spot historically to jump on Philadelphia after their performance against Arizona. The Eagles are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games off a game where they allowed 35 or more points, 21-8 ATS in their last 29 off a loss by 21 or more points and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after a game where they had a turnover margin of -4 or worse.
As for the Redskins, they are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game, 4-12 ATS in their last 16 off a SU win and 6-15 ATS in their last 21 as a road underdog. We also find a strong system backing a fade of Washington, as road teams off a home game where both teams scored at least 24 points are just 28-59 (32%) ATS in the last 2 weeks of the season since 1983.