The Washington Redskins (1-3, 2-2 ATS) are set to host the Seattle Seahawks (2-1, 2-1 ATS) on Monday Night Football. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:30 EST at FedEx Field and will be televised nationally on ESPN. Oddsmakers currently have the Seahawks listed as a 7-point road favorite with the total set at 45.5 points.

This will be the first meeting between these two teams since their Wild Card matchup in the playoffs a couple years ago. Seattle won that contest 24-14 as a 3-point road favorite. It was the 3rd straight win for the road team in the series.

Early Lean on Redskins +7

While the Seahawks are widely considered one of the best teams in the league and are coming off their bye week, I think the books have inflated this line big time, creating some great value on what should be an extremely motivated Redskins squad. Washington comes into this game off an embarrassing 14-45 home loss to division rival New York on Thursday Night Football. The Redskins got off to a horrible start and couldn’t protect the football, turning it over 6 times.

Despite opening 1-3, the statistics suggest that this a much better team than their record would indicate. The Redskins rank 4th in total offense (415.3 ypg) and 8th in total defense (324.3 ypg). No other team in the NFL can say that. There only 5 other teams who rank in the top half of the league in both total offense and total defense and they are Seattle, Cincinnati, Detroit, Baltimore and Pittsburgh, who have a combined record of 13-5.

Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points who are giving up 24 or more points/game after a loss by 28 or more points are 68-34 (67%) ATS since 1983.

One of the big reasons why I like Washington’s chances of covering the touchdown spread at home is their ability to run the football, which has been a recipe for success against this Seattle defense. You simply can’t rely on your passing game to pick up big yardage against this vaunted Seahawks’ secondary. Seattle had 9 games last year where they either lost outright or won by 7 or fewer points. Eight of those opponents rushed for more than 100 yards. In their 21-30 loss at San Diego earlier this season, the Chargers had 101 rushing yards on 37 attempts.

Another key here is that the Redskins strength defensively is their run defense, which comes in 8th in the league giving up just 87.0 ypg. It’s no secret that Seattle relies heavily on their ground attack to get their offense going. The Seahawks come in 3rd in rushing (148.0 ypg) and 26th in passing (208.7 ypg).

There’s a strong system in play on the Redskins as well. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points who are giving up 24 or more points/game after a loss by 28 or more points are 68-34 (67%) ATS since 1983. Adding to this is the fact that Washington is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.