This Sunday the Buffalo Bills (5-3) will host the New Orleans Saints (6-2) in an intriguing non-conference matchup. Kickoff is set for 1:00 EST at New Era Field and will be televised locally on FOX.
Oddsmakers currently have New Orleans listed as a 3-point road favorite with the total set at 46.5 points. Check out our Week 10 NFL odds page for a full betting schedule for this week’s games, plus more links to our game previews.
Saints vs Bills Vegas Game Predictions & Betting Preview
New Orleans kept it’s winning streak alive with an easy 30-10 home win over the Bucs as a 7-point favorite. New Orleans has now won 6 straight since starting the season 0-2 and are also a perfect 6-0 ATS during this run.
The Bills on the other hand will be looking to bounce back from an ugly 21-34 road loss to the Jets, which was played on Thursday Night Football. Buffalo came no where close to covering as a 3-point favorite, as it was an even bigger blowout than the final score would suggest. The Bills trailed 7-34 in the 4th quarter before adding a couple late garbage touchdowns.
Free NFL Betting Pick Against the Spread: Bills +3
As well as the Saints have been playing, I think the value here is with Buffalo catching a field goal at home. The Bills are a perfect 4-0 at home this season, where they are outscoring their opponents by 10.5 points/game. Had it not been for that ugly loss to the Jets in prime time last week, I think this would be closer to a pick’em and maybe even have Buffalo favored. Keep in mind the Bills had won 4 of their previous 5 games before the loss.
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Another key thing with the performance against New York, you can’t overlook how difficult it is for a lot of these teams to play on the road with that short week of rest and preparation. I don’t think there’s any doubt that’s no where close to an accurate showing of how this team has played. Also, the scheduling aspect now works in their favor, as they get an extra 3 days of rest and time to prepare due to playing on Thursday.
I know New Orleans is 3-1 away from home this season, but a lot of that has to do with the schedule and some lucky breaks like going to Green Bay after they lost Aaron Rodgers to an injury. Historically this Saints team has not been nearly the same team on the road as they have at home and Buffalo can be one of the more difficult places to play, especially this late in the season.
When most people think of the Saints offense the first thing that comes to mind is Drew Brees and the passing attack. However, they have been running the ball effectively this year. I think that’s important to note, as there have been 4 games where they were held to 105 or less yards and in all 4 games they scored 20 or fewer points (2-2 record). On the flip side, they have rushed for 145 or more in their other 4 games and scored 26 or more in all 4 of those.
I believe the Bills are a team that can really make it tough on the Saints rushing attack. Buffalo comes in ranked 8th in the NFL giving up just 94.4 ypg on the ground. They have also held 5 of their 8 opponents to fewer than 80 yards and are giving up just 68 yards/game at home this season.
New Orleans is just 3-12 ATS the last 15 times they came into a game having covered the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. Buffalo on the other hand is 26-12 ATS in their last 38 home games played in Weeks 10 through 13 and 3-0-1 ATS at home this season. Give me the Bills +3.