The San Diego State Aztecs (7-2) host the Fresno State Bulldogs (4-5) on Friday for a Mountain West showdown. Kickoff is set for 9:30 PM EST on November 15th at SDCCU Stadium and the game will be televised on ESPN2.
Taking a look at the Week 12 college football odds, San Diego State opened as a 1-point home favorite earlier this week. The spread hasn’t moved at all after early betting, as the Aztecs are currently available at -1. The total for the game is sitting at 43 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: San Diego State vs Fresno State
Fresno State has now dropped two out of their last three games after losing 37-35 at home against Utah State last weekend to drop to 4-5 on the season overall. The Bulldogs trailed 21-14 at the half and couldn’t quite pull off the comeback over the final two quarters despite outscoring the Aggies 21-16 down the stretch. QB Jorge Reyna went 16/20 for 263 passing yards through the air while RB Ronnie Rivers exploded for 102 rushing yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Jalen Cropper led the way for the receiving corps, hauling in three catches for 97 yards. Overall, Fresno State gained just over 400 total yards of offense and found the end zone five times despite coming up just short on the scoreboard.
The Bulldogs had a tough outing on the other side of the ball against Utah State, giving up well over 500 total yards of offense and four touchdowns. Fresno State really struggled to contain Aggies WR Siaosi Mariner, as he torched the secondary for 103 yards and two touchdowns on 11 receptions.
San Diego State suffered their second loss of the season last weekend, falling 17-13 at home against Nevada despite being favored by well over two touchdowns. The Aztecs held the Wolf Pack to only a single field goal over the first two quarters of the game but gave up two touchdowns in the second half en route to a four-point defeat. QB Ryan Agnew certainly wasn’t at his best, going 18/35 for 196 passing yards while also failing to find the end zone through the air and getting picked off once. RB Chance Bell led the way on the ground, rushing for 40 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries. Kobe Smith also chipped in on offense, making five receptions for 40 yards. As a whole, San Diego State generated just over 300 total yards of offense and scored just a single touchdown.
The Aztecs were pretty solid defensively against Nevada, holding the Wolf Pack to well under 250 total yards of offense and two touchdowns. San Diego State did a fantastic job defending against the run, surrendering only 32 net rushing yards all game.
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: SDSU -1
I think that the Aztecs offer pretty decent value in this particular spot, especially at home where they have won two out of their last three games overall. While San Diego State hasn’t been overly impressive on offense this year, their defense has given up 17 points or less in three straight outings. Fresno State also has really struggled defensively, getting torched for at least 116 total points in just their last three games combined. The Bulldogs offense is definitely responsible for keeping them competitive week in and week out, which could spell trouble on Friday evening against a very formidable SDSU defense.
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However, Fresno State has had the upper hand against the spread in this Mountain West matchup recently, covering the number in two out of the last three meetings between these rivals overall. Still, the Bulldogs are only 2-5 against the spread over their last seven games overall and just 1-2 ATS in their last three road games. On the other side, the Aztecs are a rock-solid 4-1 outright in their last five games overall. I’m going to lay the single point and take a shot with the home favorite in a game they should find a way to win – give me San Diego State to cover!