The San Diego State Aztecs travel to Hawaii this weekend to take on the Warriors. Kickoff will be at 11:15 PM EST on Saturday, October 28th at Aloha Stadium in Halawa, Hawaii. The game will be televised on ESPN2.
San Diego State enters this game as 9.5 point road favorites. Early betting has changed the line slightly, as the Aztecs opened at -11.5. The over/under for the game is 53 points. Click here for a full list of Week 9 betting odds and links to game previews.
San Diego State vs Hawaii Vegas Betting Line & Game Preview
The Aztecs lost their second straight game after an impressive 6-0 start last weekend, falling 27-3 to Fresno State at home. San Diego State was ranked in the top 25 teams nationwide just two weeks ago, but have since struggled mightily – especially on offense. QB Christian Chapman looked below average against the Bulldogs, only passing for 77 yards the entire game. RB Rashaad Penny also played poorly, rushing for less than 75 yards for the second straight game. Both will look to rebound this weekend against a Hawaii defense that is currently giving up an average of 478.4 total yards per game. An immediate return to form is desperately needed, especially for a rushing attack that has averaged 198.9 yards per game on the ground (37th overall).
Hawaii won their first conference game of the season on October 14th, as they beat San Jose State 37-26. The Warriors offense is led by RB Diocemy Saint Juste, a workhorse who is currently averaging 26 carries per game. Saint Juste had a standout performance against the Spartans, rushing for 202 yards and two touchdowns on a ridiculous 39 carries. The biggest problem for this Hawaii team is their extremely poor defensive play. The Warriors are giving up an average of 478.4 total yards per game (117th overall) and 35.6 points (108th). Even in a game that they ended up winning, Hawaii allowed a rather weak San Jose State offense to gain over 500 yards.
Free NCAAF Betting Prediction: San Diego State -9.5
There is no doubt that the Aztecs have looked pretty bad over the past several weeks. After losing to both Boise State and Fresno State, it’s definitely tough to have a lot of confidence in this group right now. However, I think this match-up with Hawaii sets up perfectly for a rebound performance for the San Diego State offense. The Warriors just allowed San Jose State, who are ranked 123/129 teams in terms of scoring (16.4 points per game), to rack up over 500 yards. I don’t see how the Aztecs don’t manage to at least duplicate that performance. If the spread was still a double-digit number, I might have had a hard time laying the points. As it sits currently, however, I still think there is some value to be found with the Aztecs.
Click on the link for more free NCAA football picks against the spread and total.
San Diego State is 11-4 ATS over their past 15 road games and 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these two teams in Hawaii. The Warriors have really struggled lately, going just 8-22-1 ATS over their last 31 games overall. They are also 0-6 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a winning record.
There has always been a bit of an assumption that the extra travel may hurt road teams. Being forced to adjust to a new time zone and a different routine is certainly something to consider in this spot. After digging a little bit deeper, it appears that this is somewhat of a false red flag – Hawaii is just 5-15-1 ATS over their past 21 home games. I am confident that San Diego State figures out a way to turn things around this weekend. The Aztecs should be able to win this game by at least ten points and finally return to the win column.