The Nevada Wolf Pack (5-4) travel to California this weekend for a Mountain West clash with the #24 overall San Diego State Aztecs (7-1). Kickoff is set for 10:30 PM EST on November 9th at SDCCU Stadium and the game will be televised on ESPN2.
Taking a look at the Week 11 college football odds, San Diego State opened as a 17.5-point home favorite earlier this week. The spread hasn’t moved at all after early betting, as the Aztecs are currently available at -17.5. The total for the game is sitting at 39.5 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: San Diego State vs Nevada
Nevada lost their second straight game last weekend, falling 31-3 on the road against Wyoming to drop to 5-4 on the season overall. The Wolf Pack gave up 24 points in the first half alone and never recovered, scoring just a single field goal all game. QB Carson Strong went 26/40 for 247 passing yards but also threw a costly interception. Devonte Lee led the way on the ground, rushing for 38 yards on just three carries. Romeo Doubs chipped in as well, hauling in five receptions for 98 yards. Overall, Nevada generated over 300 total yards of offense but failed to find the end zone against a tough Cowboys defense.
The Wolf Pack didn’t have a great outing on the other side of the ball against Wyoming, surrendering well over 450 total yards of offense and four touchdowns. Nevada struggled to contain Cowboys WR Rocket Ismail Jr. down the field, as he made four catches for 93 yards and a touchdown.
San Diego State has now won seven out of their first eight games after sneaking by UNLV 20-17 in the last week of October to move to 7-1 on the season overall. The Aztecs scored 14 unanswered points in the first quarter and managed to hold on for the victory despite getting outscore 17-6 over the final 45 minutes of the game. QB Ryan Agnew went 14/23 for 185 passing yards and a touchdown through the air while RB Juwan Washington rumbled for 89 rushing yards on a team high 16 carries on the ground. Kobe Smith led the way for the receiving corps, making seven catches for 78 yards. As a whole, San Diego State gained well over 300 total yards and scored one touchdown on offense in the win.
The Aztecs were fairly solid defensively against UNLV, holding the Rebels to two touchdowns despite giving up over 350 total yards of offense. However, San Diego State couldn’t find a way to slow down WR Randal Grimes, as he torched the defense for 121 yards and a touchdown on only five catches.
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: Nevada +17.5
Both the spread and the total look extremely efficient to me overall, so I will most likely avoid this Mountain West showdown altogether. While San Diego State should almost certainly win this game outright with relative ease, I am a bit concerned with their inability to win games by double-digits so far this season. In fact, just two out of their seven wins on the year have come by more than ten points – and only one of them was by more than two touchdowns. Their largest margin of victory was 21 points, and it came against a New Mexico State team that has yet to win a single game the entire season. So, if the only team that the Aztecs managed to beat by more than two touchdowns currently sits at 0-8 overall, I’m certainly not liking their chances of covering this hefty spread against a conference opponent with a winning record on Saturday evening.
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Of course, Nevada hasn’t exactly been a powerhouse against the spread either, going just 3-5-1 ATS through their first nine games. Still, this spread is high enough that if I was forced to pick a side, I’d definitely lean towards taking the points and rolling with the big road underdog. It is also worth pointing out that San Diego State hasn’t been all that great at home, failing to cover the number in two out of their last three outings at SDCCU Stadium. Not wanting to lay 17.5 points in a game that should be decided by two touchdowns or less, I’m going to take my chances with the road underdog on Saturday evening. Give me the Wolf Pack to cover!