This Friday the Utah State Aggies will host the San Diego State Aztecs in Week 9 action. Kickoff is set for 8:00 EST at Romney Stadium and will be televised on CBS Sports Network. Oddsmakers have the Aztecs as 6-point favorites with the total set at 45 points.
San Diego State vs Utah State Vegas Betting Preview
The Aztecs (6-1, 3-0 MWC) come in off a 42-3 blowout win at home against San Jose State. San Diego State easily covered the number as a 23-point favorite. The Aztecs did most of their damage in the 3rd quarter, scoring 21 points.
The Aggies (3-4, 1-3 MWC) snapped a 3-game skid with a 38-20 win at home over Fresno State. However, Utah State failed to cover as they were a 21-point favorite against the Bulldogs.
Free Pick & Odds Predictions: UNDER 45
If I had to pick a side, I would lean towards Utah State and the points. However, I think the real value here is on the UNDER, even with the low total of just 45.
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San Diego State features one of the best defenses in the country. The Aztecs have allowed a total of 13 points in their last 3 games combined. On the season, they are holding opponents to a mere 286 ypg. Nearly 100-yards fewer than what their opponents average (373).
Hard to see the Aggies being the team to crack this defense. Utah State is only averaging 25.4 ppg and rank 83rd in total offense at just 359.6 ypg. The two best defenses they have faced to this point are USC and Boise State. The Aggies managed just 7 points against the Trojans 10 points against the Broncos.
The key here is that I think Utah State’s defense is capable of keeping the Aztecs offense in check. San Diego State has one of the best rushing attacks in the country. They come in 14th in the nation at 252.7 ypg. However, they also have one of the worst passing games in the country, ranking 114th at just 165.6 ypg.
Utah State’s defense has been solid against the run this season. While they are giving up 152 ypg, they are allowing just 3.6 yards/carry. They are also holding opposing teams to just 5.0 yards/play. Playing at home will definitely help the intensity of the defense. It’s also a lot easier to stop a team who is one dimensional.
Possessions should be limited for both sides, which is a key factor when looking to bet the UNDER. The Aztecs also aren’t a team who looks to poor it on late. In their 42-3 win over San Jose State, they didn’t score once in the 4th quarter.
Under is 15-5 in San Diego State’s last 20 conference games. It’s also 12-2 in their last 14 against a team with a losing record and 6-0 in their last 6 against teams who force 1 or fewer turnovers/game.