This Friday the No. 24 ranked Boise State Broncos will host the San Jose State Spartans. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:15 EST at Albertsons Stadium and will be televised on ESPN2. Oddsmakers have the Broncos as a 29-point favorite with the total at 57.5 points. Get more college football leans and game odds by clicking the link.
San Jose State vs Boise State Vegas Odds Preview
The Spartans (3-6, 2-3 MWC) enter off a 30-24 home win against UNLV as a 3-point dog. It was quite a bounce back effort for San Jose State. They had just lost the previous week at San Diego State 42-3.
The Broncos (7-1, 3-1 MWC) come in off a shocking 28-30 loss at Wyoming as a 14.5-point favorite. Boise State was outscored 23-7 after taking an early 21-7 lead. With the game tied 28-28, Boise State fumbled into their own endzone for a safety with 1:25 left to play.
Free Betting Pick & Predictions: San Jose State Spartans +29
You aren’t going to find a lot of numbers supporting a play on the Spartans. However, I simply don’t trust teams in the spot we find the Broncos. That being teams who were undefeated this late in the season off their first loss. It’s not as easy as people think to put that loss behind you and turn around and play your best football.
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While their chances were slim, Boise State had hopes of sneaking into the playoff picture at 12-0. Now they might not even make the MWC title game. They are going to need to Wyoming to lose 2 of their final 4 games.
I also think it only makes it that much harder to get up for a game against a bad team like San Jose State. A team that has already lost by 35 to Tulsa, 34 to ISU, and most recently by 39 to San Diego State. Not to mention they have dominated this series. Keep in mind that Boise’s only win this season by more than 28 points was their opener against Lafayette.
While the Broncos struggle to get up for this game, the Spartans are going to treat this like their Super Bowl. Not to mention they come in playing with some confidence after last week’s win over UNLV.
I also think San Jose State’s defense could give the Boise State some trouble. The Broncos like to air it out and that plays into the strength of the Spartans defense. San Jose State is 39th in the country against the pass, allowing just 206.9 ypg.
More than anything this is a fade of the Broncos given the situation. I’m not saying they can’t cover this spread. I just think it’s asking a lot. You will win a lot more over the long-run playing against teams in this spot. Especially when you have a massive spread like this.
It’s also worth pointing out the books have been overvaluing the Broncos at home of late. Boise State is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games. The Broncos are also just 7-21 ATS in their last 28 home games against a team with a losing road record.