The San Jose State Spartans (2-2) host the Nex Mexico Lobos (2-2) in Week 6 for an all-Mountain West battle in California. Kickoff is set for 10:00 PM EST on Friday, October 4th at CEFCU Stadium and the game will be televised on the CBS Sports Network.
Taking a look at the Week 6 college football odds, New Mexico opened as a 7-point road underdog earlier this week. That line hasn’t changed at all early betting, as the Lobos are currently listed at +7. The total for the game is sitting at 68 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: San Jose State vs New Mexico
New Mexico dropped back to .500 on the season last weekend, losing 17-10 on the road against Liberty to fall to 2-2 on the season overall. The Lobos trailed 14-3 at the end of the second quarter and never recovered, scoring just a single touchdown the rest of the way. QB Tevaka Tuioti wasn’t at his best, going just 12/26 for 139 yards and a touchdown while also getting picked off twice. RB Ahmari Davis had a decent outing on the ground, racking up 99 rushing yards on a game-high 18 carries. None of the New Mexico receiving corps could really get anything going through the air, as Marcus Williams led the way with only three catches for 33 yards. As a whole, the offense generated just under 350 total yards but only found the end zone once against a feisty Flames defense.
The Lobos defense had a good outing in Week 5, holding Liberty to just 17 points despite giving up almost 500 total yards of offense. New Mexico did had a tough time trying to slow down Flames QB Stephen Calvert, who threw for over 300 yards through the air and added two passing touchdowns.
San Jose State also currently sits at .500 overall after their first four games, losing 41-24 on the road against Air Force their last time out to drop to 2-2. The Spartans got outscored 14-3 in the second quarter before giving up 13 unanswered points to start the second half. QB Josh Love threw for almost 200 yards but it was Nick Nash who had the better game overall, going 5/7 for 82 yards and two touchdowns while also adding 62 yards on 11 carries to lead the way on the ground. WR Tre Walker was the only other offensive player to have a decent outing, hauling in six passes for 69 yards. Overall, San Jose State gained just under 400 total yards and scored three touchdowns in the loss.
The Spartans had a rough outing defensively against the Falcons, surrendering well over 500 total yards of offense and allowing six touchdowns. San Jose State got torched on the ground, as Air Force racked up 389 rushing yards and found the end zone on five separate running plays.
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: UNDER 68
I’m not really sold on backing either of these teams against the current seven-point spread in this particular matchup, as that number looks pretty efficient to me overall. However, I do think the market may have slightly overestimated the amount of scoring that will occur between these two below average defenses. On the San Jose State side, they have yet to be involved in a game where the total surpassed 65 points, as their loss against Air Force last week was the highest total for the Spartans so far this year. While New Mexico has been involved in several high-scoring affairs, one of them was a blowout against #9 overall Notre Dame and the other was a matchup against the horrific New Mexico State defense. The Lobos defense also seemed to take a few steps in the right direction last weekend, giving up just 17 points.
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It is also important to note that the total has now gone UNDER in five out of San Jose State’s last six games. As long as the number doesn’t drop below 67.5 before kickoff, I think the UNDER on 68 is the most optimal play in this Mountain West showdown. I do think that the Spartans should find a way to win this one outright, especially since they desperately want to avoid dropping to 0-2 in conference play. However, I’m not going to guess against a seemingly spot-on spread – I’ll stick with the UNDER on 68 total points instead.