This Friday the San Diego Aztecs will host the San Jose State Spartans. This Week 8 matchup is set for 10:30 EST at Qualcomm Stadium. The game will be televised on ESPN2. Oddsmakers have the Aztecs favored by 23.5 with the total at 48 points.
San Jose State vs San Diego State Vegas Preview
The Spartans (2-5, 1-2 MWC) enter off a 14-10 win at home over Nevada. That victory snapped a 4-game losing streak and was their first against a FBS opponent.
The Aztecs (5-1, 2-0 MWC) beat Fresno State 17-3 last Friday, but failed to the 17-point spread. It could have been a lot worse. San Diego State had a 364-217 edge in total yards and 25-10 advantage in first downs. They were also +3 in the turnover department.
Free Pick & Point Spread Predictions: San Diego St -23
I would have to lean on the Aztecs to cover the big number at home. I just don’t trust this San Jose State to make this game competitive on the road. The Spartans are 0-3 on the road, where they are allowing 45.7 ppg. Two of those being blowout losses to teams not as good as the Aztecs. They lost by 35 at Tulsa and 34 at Iowa State.
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San Diego State has scored 26 points or less in their last 3 games. Which is clearly a trend they have to snap to cover this spread. I believe they will. Keep in mind we have seen them put up 45 on Cal and 42 at Northern Illinois.
The Aztecs offense is centered around star running back Donnel Pumphrey. He’s already rushed for 1,111 yards and 11 touchdowns. San Diego State as a team is ranked 18th in the country at 246.o ypg on the ground.
They will be going up against an awful San Jose State run defense. The Spartans are allowing 228.3 rushing yards/game (113th). It’s much worse on the road, where they are allowing 313 ypg and 6.1 yards/carry. They are also pitiful against the pass, giving up 8.8 yards/attempt.
The other big key here is San Jose State doesn’t offer much of a threat offensively. The Spartans have scored 17 or less points in 5 of their 7 games. Only topping the mark against Portland State and New Mexico. They go up against a San Diego State defense that is only allowing 20.0 ypg. The Aztecs are strong against both the run and the pass. They are allowing just 98.0 ypg on the ground (7th) and 199.2 ypg through the air (29th).
Another big key here figures to be turnovers. San Jose State has 3 or more turnovers in 4 games this season. The Aztecs on the other hand have 6 turnovers in 6 games. If San Diego State gets a couple takeaways to create short fields, this could get ugly in a hurry.
Keep in mind the last two meetings have both been lopsided in favor of the Aztecs. San Diego State won 38-7 at home in 2014 and 30-7 at San Jose State last year. If you are going to play this one, I think you have to roll the dice on the Aztecs.