The Seattle Seahawks (4-5) are set to host the Green Bay Packers (4-4-1) on Thursday Night Football. This critical NFC showdown will kickoff ta 8:20 EST at CenturyLink Field and will be televised on both FOX and the NFL Network.

Taking a look at the Week 11 NFL odds, the experts have the Seattle listed as a slim 2.5-point home favorite with a total of 49 points.

Seahawks vs Packers Vegas NFL Preview & Betting Line

Green Bay avoided a third straight defeat in a comfortable 31-12 win at home over the Dolphins. The Packers covered as a massive 11.5-point favorite. The cover didn’t look great early, as it was a 14-12 game with more than 5 minutes into the 2nd half, before Green Bay scored two touchdowns in a little over two minutes of game time. The Packers are currently 3rd in the NFC North, but both Chicago and Minnesota are just 1-game ahead in the loss column and play each other this week.

Seattle enters off yet another heartbreaking loss to their division rivals, as the Seahawks blew another 2nd half lead against the Rams, falling 36-31 in Los Angeles. They did cover as a 9.5-point dog and despite a mere 2-3 SU record in their last 5, they have gone 4-1 ATS during this stretch. While mathematically still alive, the Seahawks only hope of making the playoffs is to land one of the two Wild Card spots.

These two teams are pretty familiar with one another. They have played each other every year going back to 2014, including twice that season, making this the sixth meeting in 5 years. Seattle won the first two, but Green Bay has answered with three straight wins, including a 17-9 win last year at home. It’s also worth noting the home team has won all 5 games during this stretch.

Green Bay vs Seattle Free Pro Football Predictions: OVER 49

My early lean here would have to be on the OVER 49 with the total. I’ve said it time and time before, the books just don’t adjust the number enough on the total for these Thursday games. Playing good defense is all about effort and energy, where offense is more about execution. Three days just isn’t enough for these defensive guys to recover and play that their full potential.

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We saw this first hand last week with the Panthers/Steelers matchup, which saw Pittsburgh eclipse the total on their own as the two combined for 73 points. There have only been two times this season where they OVER hasn’t hit on a Thursday game with teams playing on short rest. That was Week 3 with the Browns/Jets (only missed the over by a point and would have hit had Mayfield started instead of coming in for Tyrod Taylor). The other was a couple weeks ago with the 49ers/Raiders, where Oakland is in full-on tank mode.

This week we got two of the best quarterbacks in the game in Aaron Rodgers for Green Bay and Russell Wilson for the Seahawks. I expect both teams to have a lot of success moving the football.

The Packers are at the bigger disadvantage here, as they not only have to play on short-rest but they have to travel quite a ways for this one and it’s been quite a run of travel for Green Bay of late. They traveled to the west coast to play the Rams in Week 8, then went across the country to the east coast to play New England. They returned home for a game against Miami and are now headed back west.

For Seattle, I think it’s going to no only be tough for them to recover physically, but that was a very emotional game against a division rival where they were playing with revenge. Tough turnaround here for them to get up defensively after trying to contain that Rams offense.

While this is more about rest than anything for me, it’s worth noting the OVER is a solid 35-19 in the Packers last 54 as a road dog (avg. score in these games is 51.3) ¬†and 13-4 in the Seahawks last 17 as a home favorite of 3-points or less. Give me the OVER 49!