The Navy Midshipmen (5-3) host the SMU Mustangs (6-3) this weekend in a battle between two three-loss teams. Kickoff will be at 3:30 PM EST on Saturday, November 11th from Navy Marine-Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Maryland. The game will be televised on the CBS Sports Network.
Navy enters this game as 4.5 point home favorites. Betting throughout the week has yet to affect the line, as the Midshipmen originally opened at -4.5. The over/under for the game is 67 points. Click here for a full list of Week 10 betting odds and links to game previews.
SMU vs Navy Betting Line & Game Preview
The Mustangs head to Annapolis on Saturday in search of their second road win of the season. SMU almost pulled off an upset of #14 ranked UCF last weekend but fell just short, eventually losing 31-24. They trailed by just four points heading into the 4th quarter but couldn’t find a way to get on the scoreboard in the final fifteen minutes of the game. QB Ben Hicks has been solid all year long, passing for over 2,500 yards and adding 20 touchdowns. RB Xavier Jones leads the way for a strong Mustang’s rushing offense that is currently averaging 189.2 yards per game. SMU hasn’t been quite as impressive on defense, as opponents are averaging 31.0 points per game on 459.1 total yards per game.
Navy has now lost three consecutive games after a 34-26 loss against Temple last Thursday. They also may be without the services of starting QB Zach Abey on Saturday afternoon. Abey suffured an apparent upper-body injury against the Owls after throwing a costly interception in the 3rd quarter. However, Garret Lewis stepped right in for the Midshipmen and quickly passed for 100+ yards and two touchdowns in less than 2 quarters of action. As a whole, this Navy offense is currently averaging 346.1 yards per game on the ground. They are certainly one of the best teams in the entire country at rushing the ball, although they are also certainly quite one-dimensional. On the other side of the ball, the Midshipmen are giving up 29.1 points per game on 408.1 total yards per game. Navy has definitely struggled defensively all season long, ranking in the bottom quarter of most statistical categories.
Free NCAAF Betting Prediction: SMU +4.5
Despite having to play on the road this weekend, I think that the Mustangs offer a fairly decent value in this particular spot. Abey’s status for the game on Saturday is still up in the air after he missed practise all week. I know that Lewis looked quite good last weekend against Temple but I don’t think that the sample size is large enough to take away anything overly meaningful from that performance. Navy has now lost three straight games and hasn’t looked good at all since squeaking by Air Force 48-45.
SMU is an impressive 11-5 ATS over their past 16 games. The Midshipmen are just 2-5-2 ATS against teams with a winning record. Hicks has thrown two or more touchdowns in 10 out of his past 12 games and he now gets to face a Navy pass defense that is allowing an average of 242.2 passing yards per game (88th overall).
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The Mustangs have also been battle-tested against elite teams like TCU and UCF. SMU has scored 30+ points in seven out of their nine games so far this season. Navy just gave up 30+ to a Temple team that is averaging just 22.3 points per game (106th overall). This looks like a spot where the Mustangs should easily be able to score 40+ points, especially considering they are averaging 39.6 points per game (12th overall). I would actually really like the over in this particular match-up as well if I knew that Abey would be able to suit-up for Navy. In any event. I think that SMU could easily win this game straight-up. The fact that the Mustangs are also getting 4.5 extra points is just a bonus.