The Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-4) head to Mobile on Friday for a Sun Belt Conference showdown with the South Alabama Jaguars (1-10). Kickoff is set for 5:00 PM EST on November 29th at Ladd-Peebles Stadium and the game will be televised on ESPN+.

Taking a look at the Week 14 college football odds, Arkansas State opened as a 12-point road favorite earlier this week. The spread has come down by a fullĀ  point after early betting, as the Red Wolves are currently available at -11. The total for the game is sitting at 56 points.

Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: South Alabama vs Arkansas State

Arkansas State won their fourth game in a row last weekend, beating GA Southern 38-33 at home to improve to 7-4 on the season overall. The Red Wolves jumped out to a 35-19 lead in the first half and managed to hold on over the final two quarters of the game despite getting outscored 14-3. QB Layne Hatcher went 19/24 for 354 passing yards and four touchdowns through the air while RB Jamal Jones racked up 74 rushing yards on ten carries. Jonathan Adams Jr. absolutely torched the Eagles secondary, hauling in seven catches for 158 yards and two touchdowns. As a whole, Arkansas State gained almost 450 total yards and found the end zone four times on offense in the win.

The Red Wolves had a rough outing on the other side of the ball against GA Southern, giving up close to 500 total yards of offense and four touchdowns. Arkansas State had no answer for Eagle QB Shai Werts, as he passed for three touchdowns while also adding 158 yards and a score on the ground as well.

South Alabama has now lost ten out of their first eleven games on the season after falling 28-15 on the road against Georgia State last weekend to drop to just 1-10 overall. The Jaguars gave up 14 unanswered points in the second quarter and never recovered, losing by double-digits for the second time in a row. QB Desmond Trotter went 12/25 for 218 passing yards and a touchdown through the air but also got picked off once as well. RB Tra Minter led the way on the ground, rushing for 70 yards on a team-high 18 carries. Jalen Tolbert also chipped in, making two receptions for 74 yards and a touchdown. Overall, South Alabama generated well over 300 total yards of offense and scored two touchdowns despite coming up short on the scoreboard.

The Jaguars weren’t that great defensively against Georgia State, surrendering almost 400 total yards of offense and four touchdowns. South Alabama couldn’t find a way to slow down Panthers RB Tra Barnett on the ground, allowing him to rack up 128 rushing yards and a touchdown on 23 carries.

NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: Arkansas State -11

As tempted as I am by the OVER on 56 total points scored, my favorite play in this Sun Belt Conference clash is the Red Wolves against the spread. South Alabama has struggled mightily on both sides of the ball so far this season, especially on defense where they have given up at least 30 points in eight out of their first eleven games. Arkansas State has really been playing well on offense as of late, putting up at least 38 points in three out of their last four outings. I just don’t see how the Jaguars will be able to keep pace with the high-flying Red Wolves, as they have been held to no more than 19 points in seven out of their last nine games.

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Arkansas State has fared extremely well against the spread in this Sun Belt Conference rivalry over the past couple of seasons, going a rock-solid 5-1 against the spread in their last six meetings with South Alabama. They have also covered the number in four out of their last six outings on the road as well. On the other side, the Jaguars are a brutal 0-9 straight up over their last nine games and just 1-4 outright in their last outings at Ladd-Peebles Stadium. I’ll lay the 11-points and take a shot with the road favorite in this matchup, as I think that the Red Wolves will figure out a way to grind out a cover – give me Arkansas State!