This Thursday the Georgia State Panthers (3-3, 2-1 Sun Belt) will host the South Alabama Jaguars (3-4, 2-1 Sun Belt). Kickoff is set for 7:30 EST at Georgia State Stadium in Atlanta. The game will be televised on ESPNU.
Right now the Jaguars are listed as a 2-point road favorite with the total set at 49 points. Click on the link for to check out our Week 9 CFB betting odds for a full schedule and links to more game previews.
South Alabama vs Georgia State Vegas Betting Odds & Game Preview
The Jaguars defeated ULM 33-23 this past Saturday as a 4-point home favorite. South Alabama jumped out to an early 14-0 lead, but the Warhawks answered in a hurry and led 20-17 midway thru the 2nd quarter. The Jaguars retook the lead for good with a TD in the final second of the half. After combining for 44 points in the 1st half, the two teams managed just 12 in the 2nd half to stay under the total of 56.5. That’s now 6 straight games for South Alabama that have gone UNDER the total.
The Panthers fell 34-10 at home to Troy as a 6-point dog. Georgia State was outgained by 150 yards and added in a garbage TD in the final minute of the 4th quarter to make it look closer than it was. It snapped a 3-game winning streak both SU and ATS for the Panthers, who hadn’t lost since a 56-0 beatdown at Penn State.
Last year’s meeting was a defensive battle with South Alabama winning 13-10 at home. The Panthers covered as a 4.5-point dogs and the game finished well under the mark of 47.
Free College Football Pick Against the Betting Spread: Georgia St +2
The first thing that most people are going to see when they look at this game is the result for both teams against Troy. They will see that South Alabama beat the Trojans 19-8 and that the Panthers lost 10-34. That will be more than enough for them to lay the short number with the Jaguars, but my money is on the Panthers to find a way to win this game at home.
Click here for more free college football picks against the spread and total.
I just don’t feel that there’s a whole that separates these two teams and if anything Georgia State should be favored at home. These two have also both played ULM. While each beat the Warhawks by 10, the Panthers outgained ULM by 239 total yards and South Alabama had just a 61 yard edge. What people will fail to look at with the Jaguars win over Troy, is that it was the Trojans first game after that improbable win at LSU. Good chance Troy went into that contest a little overconfident. On the flip side, the Panthers got Troy coming off that loss, so they got the Trojans best effort.
The other thing here is that South Alabama’s offense is one of the worst in the country. The Jaguars rank 102nd in scoring at 23.4 ppg and 107th in total offense at just 345 ypg. It’s even worse on the road, where they are only averaging 20.4 ppg and 310 ypg. Georgia State is averaging just 20.3 ppg and 383.8 ypg on the season, but are scoring 28.0 ppg with 447 ypg and 6.1 yards/play inside the Sun Belt.
As for the Panthers offense, I think they can make enough plays here to secure the win. Georgia State has a strong passing attack, which comes in 34th in the country at 269.7 ypg. They figure to hit that and more against a South Alabama secondary that ranks 117th against the pass, giving up 272.7 ypg.
The Jaguars have also not been great in this spot. They are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 when playing on 6 or less days of rest, 1-9 ATS in their last 10 off a cover and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 on the road after a SU win. Georgia State is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 when playing on 6 or less days of rest and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 after allowing 31+ points in each of their last 2 games.