The Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2) are set to host the Tennessee Titans (6-3) on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:25 EST at Heinz Field and will be televised nationally on NBC.

Oddsmakers currently have the Steelers listed as a 7-point home favorite with the total set at 44 points. Check out our Week 11 NFL odds page for a full betting schedule, plus more links to our game previews.

Titans vs Steelers Vegas Game Odds & Betting Preview

Tennessee comes into this one off a 24-20 win at home over the Bengals, but failed to cover as a 5-point favorite. The Titans jumped out to a 7-0 lead and led all the way up until the 4th quarter, when they fell behind 17-20 after a 70-yard TD catch by A.J. Green. Tennessee got the ball back with just over 5 minutes to play and went 73 yards on 12 plays for the game-winning touchdown. That’s now 4 straight wins for the Titans after they started out just 2-3.

Pittsburgh also secured their 4th straight win in dramatic fashion, as the Steelers escaped with a 20-17 win at Indianapolis. They too failed to cover, as they were a massive 10-point favorite in that contest. Pittsburgh was just happy to win, as they trailed 3-17 in the 2nd half before closing the game on a 17-0 run, which was capped off by a 33-yard game-winning field goal as time expired.

NFL Betting Predictions & Free Pick: Steelers -7

Most people expected the Steelers to cruise to an easy win and cover against the Colts last Sunday, but that didn’t happen. Pittsburgh was lucky just to leave Indianapolis with a win. I think that performance will have a lot of people looking to back the Titans in this Thursday night matchup, but I’m just not a believer in this Tennessee team and will take my chances with the Steelers at home in a prime time game.

Click here for more free NFL picks from our expert handicappers on staff.

It’s no secret that the home team has a huge edge in these Thursday games when both teams are playing on short rest. That combined with the fact the Titans have no been a good road team is a big reason why I’m willing to lay the touchdown here. Tennessee hasn’t played on the road since they went to Cleveland back on 10/22 and they barely beat the Browns, needing overtime to escape with a 12-9 win. The Titans also lost at Miami 10-16 and at Houston 14-57 in their previous two on the highway.

As you can see, the offense has really struggled to put up points away from home and it’s not going to get any easier here against a very good Steelers defense. Pittsburgh is 2nd in the NFL, giving up just 16.4 ppg and are also 2nd in total defense, allowing just 284.5 ypg. One thing Pittsburgh does very well is stop the run. They haven’t allowed a team to rush for more than 71 yards in each of their last 4 games. While Titans QB Marcus Mariota is a quality signal caller, Tennessee ranks just 27th in the NFL at 203.9 passing yards/game.

As for the Steelers offense, you simply can’t read to much into their lackluster showings in their last two games at Detroit and at Indianapolis. For whatever reason, Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh offense just doesn’t play well on the road. With a tired and banged up Titans defense coming to town, I look for Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense to have a lot of success here against what I think is an overrated Tennessee defense. The Titans rank just 23rd in points allowed, giving up 23.7 ppg, despite an easy schedule. In their 9 games they have faced numerous bad offenses, such as the Jaguars, Dolphins, Colts, Browns, Ravens and Bengals.

Titans are also not a team that has performed well off a win, as they are just 14-36-2 ATS in their last 52 games off a win. Tennessee is also just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Pittsburgh on the other hand is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 after a game in which they didn’t cover the number and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs a team with a winning record. Give me the Steelers.