The TCU Horned Frogs (4-6) travel to Waco this weekend for an all-Texas showdown against the Baylor Bears (5-5). Kickoff is set for 12:00 PM EST at McLane Stadium and the game will be broadcast on FS1.
Taking a look at the Week 12 college football odds, Baylor opened as a 2-point home favorite earlier this week. That line has shifted by half a point after early betting, as the Bears are currently listed at -1.5 The total for the game is sitting at 53 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Baylor vs TCU
TCU fell two games below .500 on the season last weekend after a lopsided 47-10 road loss to West Virginia. The Horned Frogs are now just 1-4 overall in their last five games. Things didn’t go well at all offensively against the Mountaineers, as TCU gained an embarrassing -7 rushing yards all game. QB Mike Collins performed fairly well despite being under constant pressure, throwing for 229 yards and a touchdown. The offense has now scored 28 or less points in eight straight games for the first time in over two decades. As a whole, they are currently averaging just 24.9 points per game (97th overall).
The Horned Frogs have been relatively average on the other side of the ball, allowing opponents to score an average of 26.0 points per game (63rd overall). They have been pretty good against the pass so far this season, giving up 208.7 yards per game through the air (45th overall). They have also looked decent defending against the run through ten games, surrendering an average of 146.3 yards per game on the ground (49th overall).
Baylor dropped back to .500 on the year last weekend after a tough 28-14 loss to #16 overall Iowa State. The Bears trailed 17-0 at the half and never really got back into the game, as the Cyclones were up by double-digits throughout. QB Charlie Brewer has played well all year long, throwing for 288 yards and two touchdowns in Week 11 despite being forced to leave the game early after getting ejected due to two unsportsmanlike penalties. He also led Baylor in rushing, racking up 72 yards on 12 carries. Overall, the offense is currently averaging 29.5 points per game (66th overall).
On the other side of the ball, the Bears are currently giving up 33.4 points per game (101st overall). They have really struggled to slow down opposing teams on the ground, allowing 183.8 rushing yards per game (88th overall).
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: Baylor -1.5
Both of these teams haven’t been overly impressive so far this year, as TCU has just one win since September and Baylor has now lost three out of their last four games. However, the Horned Frogs have been absolutely terrible against the spread as of late, going a dreadful 0-7 ATS over their last seven games overall. While Baylor certainly isn’t an absolute lock in this particular matchup, they have gone 11-5 ATS over their last sixteen home games against teams with losing road records. While their play on defense has really let them down a lot this year, TCU certainly isn’t an offensive powerhouse, so they may be able to outscore their issues here in Week 12 against a fairly average Horned Frogs defense.
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The Bears are also 10-4 ATS over their last fourteen games against teams with a losing record. While they certainly haven’t been great against the spread overall, their current 4-5-1 ATS track record this season is much better than the 2-8 record TCU currently has. The Horned Frogs are also just 1-4 ATS in their last five road games and 7-19 ATS over their past 26 meetings with opponents from the Big 12.
Baylor has the better record this year and also gets to play at home this weekend. If this spread was any more than a field goal, I’d likely take the Horned Frogs to cover the number. However, 1.5 points seems like a pretty good value, so I’m laying the half field-goal and rolling with the home favorite. They have been the more consistent team so far and TCU is just 2-6 in their last eight games overall. Baylor should be able to grind out a cover facing such a small spread.