The TCU Horned Frogs (2-1) host the Kansas Jayhawks (2-2) in Week 5 for a BIG 12 battle from Fort Worth, Texas. Kickoff is set for 12:00 PM EST on Saturday, September 28th at Amon G. Carter Stadium and the game will be televised on FS1.
Taking a look at the Week 5 college football odds, Texas Christian opened as a 16-point home favorite earlier this week. That line has shifted by half a point after early betting, as the Horned Frogs are currently listed at -16.5. The total for the game is sitting at 48.5 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: TCU vs Kansas
Kansas dropped back to .500 overall on the season last weekend, falling 29-24 at home against West Virginia to move to 2-2 after four games. The Jayhawks trailed 10-7 at the half and couldn’t find a way to overtake the Mountaineers down the stretch, getting outscored 9-7 in the fourth quarter. QB Carter Stanley played well, passing for 275 yards and three touchdowns. Stanley also had a good game on the ground, averaging 4.9 yards per carry. WR Andrew Parchment was clearly the player of the game for Kansas, hauling in five receptions for 132 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Overall, the offense gained over 400 total yards and scored three touchdowns despite coming up just short on the scoreboard.
The Jayhawks were pretty average on the other side of the ball in Week 4, allowing West Virginia to score three touchdowns on over 400 total yards of offense. Kansas really struggled to slow down the Mountaineers on the ground, allowing Kennedy McKoy and Martell Pettaway to combine for 113 rushing yards and three scores.
TCU suffered their first loss of the season last weekend, dropping a close 41-38 decision at home against SMU. The Horned Frogs trailed 31-17 at the half and never recovered despite outscoring the Mustangs by 11 points over the final two quarters. QB Max Duggan threw for 188 yards and three touchdowns but was clearly overshadowed by RB Darius Anderson, as Anderson rushed for 161 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries. WR Pro Wells also made an impact for TCU, catching two passes for 25 yards and two touchdowns. As a whole, the offense generated over 400 total yards and scored five touchdowns in a losing cause.
The Horned Frogs defense had their first bad outing of the season against SMU, giving up over 400 total yards and five touchdowns. TCU really had a difficult time trying to stop the Mustangs running attack, as three different SMU players scored rushing touchdowns.
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: OVER 48.5
The current spread looks incredibly accurate to me, as I don’t really see a ton of value on either side. While TCU should have no problem winning this game outright, their below average play on defense last weekend doesn’t make me feel comfortable with laying 16.5 points in a matchup against a BIG 12 conference rival. On the other side, Kansas has been all over the place this season and is also a pretty hard team to trust right now. While the Jayhawks beat both Indiana State and Boston College, they also lost to Coastal and WVU as well. Ultimately, the OVER on 48.5 points scored seems like the best overall value from this game. Both offenses have shown they can put points on the board, as the Horned Frogs have scored at least 34 points in every game this season while Kansas has scored at least 24 points in three out of their four games.
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Even though I am slightly more inclined to trust TCU against the spread in this particular spot, they really have not performed well against the spread as of late. Not only are they only 1-6 ATS over their last seven meetings with Kansas, they are also just 4-9 ATS in their past 13 games overall. To make matters even worse, the Horned Frogs are also a brutal 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games against a BIG 12 conference opponent. However, I am fully expecting their offense to score around 30 points against an average Kansas defense. On the other side, the Jayhawks should be able to score at least 20 points against a TCU defense that certainly isn’t as strong this season as it has been over the previous 4-5 years. As such, I’m rolling with the OVER on 48.5 total points scored.