This Saturday the Oklahoma Sooners (11-1) will face off against the TCU Horned Frogs (10-2) in the Big 12 title game. The game will be played at AT&T Stadium, which is home to the Dallas Cowboys. Kickoff is set for 12:30 EST and will be televised nationally on FOX.
Oddsmakers currently have the Sooners listed as a 7-point favorite with the total set at 63.5 points. Check out our Week 14 NCAAF odds page for a full betting preview and more links to our game previews.
TCU vs Oklahoma Vegas Preview & Game Betting Odds
The Horned Frogs closed out the regular season with a 45-22 win at home against Baylor, just missing out on a cover as a massive 26-point favorite. However, it was a lot closer than the final score would lead on. The Bears actually jumped out to a 9-0 lead. TCU was able to answer back and had a 21-19 lead at the half, but were only up by 6 with less than a couple minutes to play in the 3rd quarter.
The Sooners enter off a 59-31 blowout win and cover at home over West Virginia as a 23-point favorite. Unlike TCU’s win, where it was much closer than the final, this one was over early, as Oklahoma had a commanding 45-10 edge at the half. It extended the Sooners win streak to 7 and put them one step closer to making the playoffs. Many feel that with a win over the Horned Frogs, Oklahoma would secure their ticket into the playoffs.
Unlike other conferences, where you often get two teams playing for the first time in the title game, the Big 12 was going to feature a rematch in the championship game no matter what two teams made it. This will be a quick rematch, as these two teams just met on Nov. 11 in Norman, which Oklahoma won 38-20 as a 5.5-point home favorite. That total in that contest was 64.
College Football Free Pick & Betting Predictions: TCU +7
My early lean here would have to be on the Horned Frogs catching a touchdown in the Big 12 title game. I just feel like this is a big number for TCU to be catching in a game they are more than capable of winning outright. Keep in mind that in that first meeting in Norman, Oklahoma closed as just a 5.5-point favorite. Based off that line, the Sooners would have only been around a 3-point favorite at that time on a neutral field.
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There’s a couple of reasons the line has jumped so much from then to now. One is the outcome of the first game, where Oklahoma was in complete control from the start and won by 18. The other is the books know that based on that first outcome and how well the Sooners have been playing, the public is going to be on Oklahoma here.
I personally don’t think the line should be closer to what it would have been a few weeks back with the Sooners around a 2.5 to 3-point favorite. With that said, there’s simply too much value here with TCU to pass up.
I know the game was basically over at the half in the first meeting, but I think there’s a lot to be said about how the 2nd half played out. TCU’s defense, which didn’t play up to their potential in the 1st half, held Oklahoma scoreless over the final two quarters. I believe that’s something they can build on going into the rematch and let’s not forget this Horned Frogs defense has been one of the best in the country this season.
The other big key here is where this game is being played. While I expect a pretty even amount of fans from both sides, it’s a whole different story playing a team on a neutral field than it is on their home field. Oklahoma has only lost 8 times over the last 11 years on their home field, so for them to win at home in the first meeting shouldn’t have been a huge surprise.
Lastly, I like the fact that all the pressure is on the Sooners in this game. Even with a win here the Horned Frogs likely don’t have a path to the playoffs. Oklahoma on the other hand is likely in with a win. So not only is TCU going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder as they try to get revenge, they should be the more relaxed of the two teams in this matchup. Like I said earlier, I think the Horned Frogs have an excellent shot at wining this game and a great chance of keeping it closer than expected. Give me TCU +7.