This Saturday the Texas Tech Red Raiders will play host to the TCU Horned Frogs. Kickoff is set for 12:00 EST at Jones AT&T Stadium and will be televised on ESPN2.

Oddsmakers opened up this game at Texas Tech -1, but right now it’s TCU who is listed as a 3-point favorite and even 3.5 at some places. The total opened at 56.5 and is down slightly at most books to 55.5.

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TCU vs Texas Tech Vegas Vetting Line & Game Preview

TCU Horned Frogs (4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS)

The Horned Frogs are coming off a excruciating 23-29 triple-overtime loss at home to Baylor. TCU watched the Bears’ John Mayers connect on a 51-yard field goal in the final seconds of regulation to force extra time. Their defense, which held Baylor to just three field goals in regulation, allowed touchdowns on all 3 of the Bears’ drives in overtime.

It was a fortunate non-cover for anyone who backed TCU as a 1.5-point dog, but that fails in comparison to anyone who took the under 48.

That loss almost guaranteed a losing record in Big 12 play for the Horned Frogs, as they would  need to win out and still have a road date at Oklahoma on the schedule. TCU has lost 4 of 5 overall and are just 1-4 ATS during this stretch.

Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS)

The Red Raiders snapped a 3-game losing streak with one of their best showings of the season, as they went on the road and laid it on West Virginia 38-17 as a slim 2.5-point road favorite. Texas Tech got a massive day from backup quarterback Jett Duffey, as he threw for 354 yards on 24 of 34 passing.

The Red Raiders need to win 2 of their final 3 games to get to bowl eligibility and this is one they likely need to have. Texas Tech also figures to be a dog next week at home against K-State and will surely be a dog at Texas in the finale.

Matchup History

Texas Tech defeated the Horned Frogs 17-14 as a 7.5-point road underdog last year and the game stayed well under the mark of 57.5. It marked the fourth straight time the road team won outright in the series. Texas Tech has covered 3 of the last 4 and are also 3-0 ATS in the last 3 at home against the Horned Frogs.

College Football Free Pick Against the Spread: Texas Tech +3.5

My early lean here would be take the points at home with Texas Tech. I really like the value with the Red Raiders in this one. Texas Tech will be coming into this game with a ton of confidence after going on the road and laying it on the Mountaineers 38-17 as a slim 2.5-point favorite. I not only think they cover the 3.5-point spread at home, but I think there’s a decent chance they win this one going away.

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Not only do I think this is an ideal spot to jump on Texas Tech, but I think it’s an even better spot to fade TCU. The Horned Frogs are coming off an absolutely gut-wrenching 29-23 triple-overtime loss at home to undefeated and No. 12 ranked Baylor last week. TCU led the entire way only to see Baylor tie the game in the final seconds on a 51-yard field goal and then had to watch their defense give up 3 touchdowns in OT after they had held the Bears to 3 field goals in regulation.

Simply coming off that loss would have been a challenge. Add in the fact that TCU has a massive game on deck against No. 10 Oklahoma, who every team in the Big 12 has circled on the schedule and I think it will be near impossible for the Horned Frogs to play in Lubbock this Saturday.

Texas Tech quarterback Jett Duffey torched West Virginia’s secondary for 354 yards last week and the Red Raiders as a team come in completing 66% of their pass attempts for an average 309 yards/game. Texas Tech as a whole averages 32.2 ppg. Those stats are important to note given the matchup, as TCU is 2-9 ATS the last 2 seasons when facing an offense that completes 62% or more of their pass attempts and the same 2-9 ATS when facing a team that averages 31 or more points/game.

Horned Frogs have also been a good fade off a loss, as they are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 after a defeat. They are also 2-6 ATS last 8 on the road. Give me Texas Tech +3.5!