Both teams still have much to play for this weekend as the TCU Horned Frogs visit the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Kickoff is scheduled for noon EST on Saturday, November 18 at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, Texas. The game can be seen on FS1.
Oddsmakers list the Horned Frogs as 7.5-point favorites on the road with an over/under of 57 points. Click here for a full list of Week 12 betting odds and links to game previews.
TCU vs Texas Tech Vegas Vetting Line & Game Preview
Despite last week’s loss to Oklahoma, the Horned Frogs are still alive for a Big 12 championship. TCU is 8-2 overall and 5-2 in conference play, and if they can take care of business in their final two games, they’ll be in line for a potential rematch with Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game. TCU’s chances of ending up in top-4 of the Playoff rankings are slim. But the Frogs would certainly settle for a conference championship.
Texas Tech, meanwhile, is one win from a bowl game. They beat Baylor last week to snap a four-game losing streak and get to 5-5 overall. With a home game against TCU and a road trip to Texas next week, it won’t be easy. But the Red Raiders at least have a fighting chance to get to a bowl game after missing out last season.
College Football Free Pick Against the Spread: TCU -7.5
This game is an easy lean toward TCU. I’m surprised that the spread isn’t bigger because these teams are on opposite sides of the Big 12 standings, as the Red Raiders are just 2-5 in conference play. TCU is much better than Tech defensively and nearly as good on offense, so I have no problem believing the Horned Frogs will win by double digits and easily cover the spread.
Click on the link for more free NCAA football picks against the spread and total.
Even by Big 12 standards, the Texas Tech defense is bad. They were saved last week because Baylor’s young quarterback turned the ball over three times. The Red Raiders beat Baylor comfortably by two touchdowns. But take away their defensive touchdown and special teams touchdown and the game would have been tied with Tech getting badly outplayed.
Baylor out-gained Texas Tech by nearly 200 yards. Even with four turnovers, the Bears racked up over 500 yards of offense. Considering Baylor is 1-9 on the season, that doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence in Tech’s defense against a team like TCU.
I’ve been a little skeptical of the TCU offense at times this season, primarily because of quarterback Kenny Hill. But Hill has only thrown five interceptions this season. Against bad defenses, he’s managed to avoid turnovers and put up decent numbers. I’m inclined to think he can continue to do that against the Texas Tech defense.
Other than the 1st half last week against Oklahoma, the TCU defense has played well this year. They’re arguably the best defensive team in the Big 12, allowing just 16 points per game on the season. I see no reason why they won’t have a good game this week as well.
The Horned Frogs won’t be able to completely shut down the Red Raiders with the way Nic Shimonek can throw the ball. But the TCU defense should be able to stop the Texas Tech running game and make the Raiders one-dimensional. From there, the TCU defense should be able to take control of the game and keep Texas Tech contained.
Texas Tech has tried all season to win games with a great offense and no defense. But that strategy has not worked. They’ve lost by double figures to Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Iowa State, and I see them doing so again versus TCU.