This Thursday the TCU Horned Frogs (3-2) will host the Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-2). Kickoff for this weekday Big 12 matchup is set for 7:30 EST at Amon G. Carter Stadium and will be televised on ESPN.
Oddsmakers opened this thing up with TCU as a 7.5-point home favorite, but it’s been bet down to the Horned Frogs laying just 7. The total is currently sitting at either 61.5 or 62 depending on where you shop. Click here for a full look at the Week 6 betting odds and for more links to our game previews.
TCU vs Texas Tech Vegas Vetting Line & Game Preview
Both teams are coming off a bye, so each has had ample amount of time to prepare for this matchup.
Last time out the Red Raiders fell 34-42 as a 3.5-point home dog to then No. 12 West Virginia (now No. 6). Texas Tech did a nice job just making a game of it, as they trailed 21-0 in the 1st quarter and 35-10 at the half. Red Raiders had the ball down 8 late in the 4th quarter, but threw a pick six to put it out of reach.
The Horned Frogs avoided losing three in a row with a 17-14 home win over Iowa State. TCU kicked the game-winning field in the final seconds for the victory, but it was the Cyclones who easily covered the number as a 11.5-point underdog. Prior to the win the Horned Frogs had lost back-to-back games against Ohio State and Texas.
College Football Free Pick Against the Spread: UNDER 62
My early lean here would be this game going UNDER the total of 62. I just think the public can’t help themselves when it comes to playing the OVER in games involving Texas Tech. So far it’s paid off great, as the OVER is 4-1 in the Red Raiders’ first 5 games. However, I believe the books know that’s where the money is going to come in and have inflated this number quite a bit.
Click on the link for more free NCAA football picks against the spread and total.
Last year TCU went on the road and beat Texas Tech 27-3 for a combined score of just 30 points, which was well below the posted total for that matchup of 54. The year before that we saw a ridiculous total of 87.5 and the game ended up 27-24 for a total of just 51.
I think it’s going to be the same old story in this one. This high-powered Texas Tech offense will be up against one of the best defenses in the country. TCU ranks 35th against the run (125.6 ypg) and are 23rd vs the pass (178.0 ypg). Gary Patterson knows how to slow down this Red Raiders attack and he’s had nearly two weeks to get his defense prepared. I also think the game being played at home is huge for TCU’s defense, as they should be able to feed off the crowd.
We also don’t know who is going to be at quarterback for the Red Raiders. Week 1 starter McLane Carter is questionable with an ankle injury and his replacement, Alan Bowman is recovering from a collapsed lung. If they have to go to Jett Duffey, who replaced Bowman vs West Virginia, that’s going to be a problem for Texas Tech. Duffey is a much bigger threat with his legs than his arm and has already thrown 3 interceptions on just 36 attempts.
TCU is also dealing with an injury to their starting quarterback, as Shawn Robinson hurt his non-throwing shoulder in the final minutes against Iowa State. Patterson has said he will be available, but may not start. Regardless of who starts, the Horned Frogs are built to run the football and one of the reasons they were able to hold Texas Tech to just 3-points last year in Lubbock, is they ran it so effectively. TCU had 204 rushing yards compared to just 85 passing (only attempted 17 passes). Patterson knows that the best way to slow down this Red Raiders offense is to keep them on the sidelines.
It’s also worth noting the UNDER is 21-6 in the Horned Frogs last 27 conference games, 11-4 in their last 15 overall and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 off a bye. UNDER is also 4-1 in Texas Tech’s last 5 road games and 4-1 in their last 5 vs conference foes. Give me the UNDER 62.