This Thursday we have the Temple Owls (3-5, 1-3 AAC) hosting the Navy Midshipmen (5-2, 3-2 AAC). Kickoff is set for 8:00 EST at Lincoln Financial Field and will be televised on ESPN.
Oddsmakers currently have the Midshipmen listed as a 8-point road favorite with the total set at 55.5 points. Check out our Week 10 betting odds page for a full schedule and more links to our game previews.
Navy vs Temple Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds
Both teams come into this contest off a bye week. Last time out for the Midshipmen was a Week 8 clash against then No. 20 UCF. Navy made a game of it at home and had their chances late, but ended up losing 21-31. It ended up being a push on the closing line at +10, but those who bet the game early likely lost on the Midshipmen.
The Owls will be looking to bounce back from a crushing 28-31 loss at Army, where they cashed in as 7-point underdogs. Temple broke a 21-21 tie with a touchdown with less than two minutes to play. The defense couldn’t deliver and the Knights went 79 yards in 14 plays, tying the game on a 16-yard pass with 1 second to play. The Owls then missed a field goal that would have sent the game to double-overtime.
These two teams played in last year’s American Athletic Championship Game. The Owls ended up cruising to a 34-10 win over the Midshipmen as a 1.5-point dog. A big reason that game wasn’t more competitive is because Navy lost starting quarterback Will Worth in the 2nd quarter. At the same time, Temple was up 14-0 at the end of the 1st quarter.
College Football Betting Predictions and Free ATS Pick: Temple +8
I would have to take the points with the Owls getting over a touchdown at home. I just don’t think Temple is getting near enough respect in this matchup. People were down on the Owls to start with, as they lost head coach Matt Rhule to Baylor. They made a good hire in Geof Collins, but only had 10 starters back. They got blownout at Notre Dame and USF during a 2-2 start and I think a lot of people wrote them off.
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They have been competitive ever since that loss to the Bulls. They lost by 7 against Houston as a 11.5-point dog and followed it up with a 34-10 win at ECU as a slim 3.5-point favorite. Then came a 24-28 loss as a 10-point favorite against UCONN and the most recent defeat at Army. A big positive sign in those games is they outgained ECU by 236, Connecticut by 225 and Army by 117. This team is trending in the right direction and will surely be fired up in a nationally televised home night game on ESPN.
Another factor here that I like with Temple is they are going to be ready for Navy’s triple-option attack. They have essentially been practicing for this specific offense the past 3 weeks, as they played Army’s triple-option attack prior to their bye. The Owls also showed some very encouraging signs against the option when they played Army. They limited the Black Knights to 248 yards, which might seem like a lot, but that’s more than125 yards under Army’s average coming into that game, which was 378.4 ypg.
If they can have similar success against Navy, who enters leading the country at 376.1 ypg, they not only can keep this within the number, but win the game outright. That’s because Temple’s offense should have no problem moving the ball on Navy’s defense. The Midshipmen are 76th against the run, giving up 174.7 ypg and 82nd against the pass, allowing 235.6 ypg.
Owls starting quarterback Logan Marchi is listed as questionable, after he had to sit out the game against Army. Backup Frank Nutile was impressive in his place, throwing for 290 yards, while completing 20 of 29 attempts. I got no problem here if Nutile has to start this game and he might actually be the better option. While Marchi had thrown for 300+ in each of his previous two starts, he’s also got 8 interceptions in his last 4 starts.
Temple is 20-7 ATS in their last 27 vs teams who struggle in the passing game, averaging 150 or fewer yards/game. They are also 8-1 ATS vs teams what bad pass defenses, allowing their opponents to complete 58% or more of their attempts. Finally, they are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a winning record.