The Tennessee Volunteers are still searching for their SEC win of the season as they visit the Missouri Tigers. Game time is 7:30 EST on Saturday, November 11 at Memorial Stadium in Columbia, Missouri. Fans can watch the game on the SEC Network.
The Tigers are listed as 11-point favorites at home. That line has increased after Missouri opened at -8. The over/under for the game is set at 61 points. Click here for a full list of Week 11 betting odds and links to game previews.
Tennessee vs Missouri Vegas Preview & Game Predictions
Tennessee remains winless in the SEC, but the Vols did snap a four-game losing streak last week by beating Southern Miss. That win has Tennessee at 4-5, putting a bowl game in their grasp if they can win two of their last three games. Nevertheless, there is a lot of uncertainty and turmoil in Knoxville heading into their final three games.
Missouri, on the other hand, is riding a wave of positive momentum. The Tigers won their first SEC game of the season last week, crushing Florida 45-16. That was also their third straight win overall, making the Tigers 4-5 on the season, putting them two wins away from securing a bowl spot. Missouri’s schedule sets up quite well to win two of their last three. However, this is their final home game of the season, so the Tigers can’t let this opportunity slip away.
Vegas Free NCAAF Betting Pick: Tennessee +11
Missouri can score points like nobody’s business, but this spread is too big for comfort. The Vols ended their spiral last week by winning a game. Also, they’ve typically kept games close this year. I’ll lean toward Tennessee and the points in this matchup.
If you take away games against Alabama and Georgia, Tennessee’s three losses have come by an average of five points. With all due respect to Missouri, they are nowhere near the level of Alabama and Georgia. One way or another, the Vols find ways to stay competitive in games. More importantly, last week’s win over Southern Miss shows that they haven’t given up on the season despite all the turmoil around the program. That’ll bode well for them this week.
Click on the link for more free NCAA football picks against the spread and total.
Meanwhile, I’m not sure if I buy Missouri’s three-game winning streak as being a sign of things to come. The Tigers have scored 165 points over the last three weeks, averaging 55 points per game. But they’ve done that against 3-6 Idaho, 3-6 UConn, and a Florida team that didn’t bother showing up after seeing their head coach fired.
When they’ve faced a legitimate SEC defense, the Tigers have struggled to score points. They managed just 13 points against South Carolina, 14 points against Auburn, and only 3 points against Purdue, a third-tier Big Ten team. Again, if you forget out games against Alabama and Georgia, the Vols have been solid defensively for much of the year. I don’t see the Tigers scoring at will the way they’ve done the last few weeks.
I also have questions about the Missouri defense when playing power 5 conference teams. Against power 5 teams, they’re allowing 38 points per game, and that includes giving up just 16 last week against Florida.
To be fair, the Tennessee offense isn’t that great. Freshman quarterback Jarrett Guarantano has struggled early in his career. But after facing the likes of South Carolina and Alabama earlier this year, the Missouri defense may not look so tough. The Vols also got running back John Kelly back from suspension last week. He’s a huge part of their offense.
As terrible as Tennessee has been this season, they show no signs of giving up. As long as the Vols play with effort and passion, they’ll be able to slow down Missouri’s offense and keep things close with the Tigers. I’m just not sold enough on Missouri to swallow 11 points. I’ll take my chances with the Volunteers.