This Sunday the Denver Broncos (2-5) will host the Houston Texans (5-3). Kickoff is set for 4:05 EST at Mile High and will be televised locally on CBS.

Taking a look at the Week 9 NFL odds, the books have Denver listed as a slim 1-point home favorite with the total at 46 points.

Texans vs Broncos Vegas Point Spread Preview

The Texans will be looking to extend their 5-game winning streak. Last time out, Houston laid it on the Dolphins 42-23 as a 7-point home favorite on Thursday Night Football. Second-year quarterback, Deshaun Watson flashed some of that talent that had every one praising him a year ago. Watson complete 16 of 20 attempts for 239 yards and 5 touchdowns. The win did come at a hefty price, as Texans wide-out Will Fuller suffered a season-ending ACL injury.

Denver comes into this one off a 30-23 loss at Kansas City, who they had already lost to at home 27-23 earlier this season. It seems like forever ago the Broncos opened up the season 2-0, as they are just 1-5 in their last 6 games with their only win coming against the Cardinals. While mathematically they are still alive, with KC sitting at 7-1 and the Chargers at 5-2, they don’t have much hope of sneaking as the final Wild Card in the AFC.

Free Pick & Betting Predictions: Texans +1

My early lean here would have to on Houston at basically a pick’em. I just think these two teams are headed in completely different directions. Houston started the season 0-3, but have since won 5 straight and are 3-1-1 ATS during the stretch. While I think some are starting to take notice of the Texans, I still think they are a bit undervalued here.

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Denver comes in having covered 3 straight, which I feel is definitely keeping this number where it is. They only lost by 7 as a 8-point dog at Kansas City, destroyed Arizona 45-10 as a 1-point favorite on Thursday Night Football in Week 7 and a few days earlier only lost by 3-points as a 7-point home dog to the Rams.

The Broncos were very fortunate to cover against both KC and LA. They trailed the Chiefs 30-14 in the 4th quarter and the Rams 20-3 in the 2nd half. Both times scoring in the final minutes of regulation to get the cover. As for the win over the Cardinals, that result shouldn’t have surprised anyone with how bad Arizona is.

All these covers are great, but I just think last week’s game against the Chiefs was their last real fight to save this season. That definitely seems like the case after the team just traded away wide out Demaryius Thomas for future draft picks. I know they like Courtland Sutton, but I can’t imagine the move is viewed as a positive one in the locker room.

Just so happens Thomas was traded to the Texans. While he’s questionable to play, I think the players will draw a little extra motivation to make sure they beat his former team and he’s got to have some decent insights on his former team.

I also think the matchup here favors Houston. Both of these teams want to establish the run. The Texans will be up against the Broncos 27th ranked run defense (135.8 ypg) and Denver will be up against a Houston defense that ranks 7th against the run (95.1). We also saw the Broncos offensive line give up 5 sacks to the Chiefs last week, which is a bad sign with J.J. Watt coming to town.

Houston also has an edge here in terms of rest and preparation after playing their last game on Thursday compared to Sunday. Just a really bad spot for the Broncos. Denver might be able to keep this close early with it being at home, but I’m confident the Texans will leave here with a victory.