The Houston Texans (2-2) host the Atlanta Falcons (1-3) this weekend for an inter-conference showdown. Kickoff is set for 1:00 PM EST on October 6th at NRG Stadium and the game will be broadcast on FOX.
Oddsmakers opened this game up with the Texans listed as 5-point home favorites. That spread hasn’t moved at all after early betting, as Houston is currently available at -5. The total for this matchup is 48.5 points. Click here for a full look at the Week 5 NFL odds and for more links to our individual game previews.
Texans vs Falcons Game Odds & Betting Preview
The Falcons dropped to 1-3 overall last weekend after a tough 24-10 loss at home against Tennessee. Atlanta fell behind 24-7 in the first half and never recovered, scoring just a field goal the rest of the way en route to a double-digit defeat. QB Matt Ryan went 35/53 for 397 passing yards while TE Austin Hooper exploded for 130 receiving yards on a team-high nine catches. However, the Falcons really struggled to get anything going on the ground yet again in Week 4 as RB Devonta Freeman averaged just 2.3 yards per carry. As a whole, the offense generated over 400 total yards but scored just one touchdown.
Atlanta certainly didn’t have a strong showing on defense against the Titans, giving up well over 350 total yards of offense and three touchdowns. The Falcons were especially bad against the pass, as Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota threw for 227 yards and three passing touchdowns.
The Texans dropped back to .500 last weekend, falling 16-10 at home against Carolina to move to 2-2 overall. Houston trailed 10-3 at halftime but came out strong in the third quarter, scoring seven unanswered points. However, the Panthers responded with six unanswered points over the final 15 minutes to escape with the win. QB Deshaun Watson went 21/33 for 160 yards through the air while also adding a touchdown on the ground. None of the Texans receiving corps really got anything going, as DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, and Kenny Stills failed to find the end zone and combined for just 88 total yards. Overall, the offense just under 300 total yards of offense and scored just a single touchdown.
Houston looked pretty strong defensively in Week 4, holding Carolina to just over 300 yards of total offense and one touchdown. The Texans were especially strong against the pass, as Panthers QB Kyle Allen didn’t throw a single touchdown through the air all game.
Free NFL Betting Predictions and Pick: OVER 48.5
I’m leaning towards staying away from both of these teams against the spread in this matchup, as the number looks pretty spot on to me. Houston has been involved in four consecutive extremely close games to start their season, as their largest win has been by seven points while their biggest loss was just by six points. The Falcons have also had their share of close games to begin their year, as two out of their four games have been decided by four points or less. Therefore, I think the OVER on 48.5 total points scored actually offers the best value, as predicting which team can cover this very efficient spread seems like complete guesswork to me.
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While both of these teams haven’t really been involved in too many shootouts to start the year, we did see what can happen when Houston is forced to take to the air back in Week 1 against New Orleans. It is also important to note that Matt Ryan has also made at least 40 passing attempts in three out his first four games, which should provide a lot of fuel for a fast-paced, high flying game with lots of scoring. The Texans also have a wealth of depth at the receiver position, as Fuller, Stills, and Hopkins are all capable of blowing up at any time. I’ll avoid both teams against the spread and instead take the OVER on 48.5 in what should be a very entertaining matchup.