This Sunday the Green Bay Packers will host the Houston Texans. Kickoff is set for 1:00 EST at Lambeau Field and will be televised locally on CBS. Oddsmakers have Green Bay at -6.5 and the total sitting at 45.5 points. Get more Week 13 NFL game odds and free advice by clicking the link.
Texans vs Packers Vegas Odds Preview
Houston (6-5) comes into this one off a 13-21 home loss to the Chargers as a 3-point dog. The Texans offensive woes were simply too much to overcome. Brock Osweiler threw 3 interceptions and Houston turned it over 4 times total in defeat.
Green Bay (5-6) enters off a potential season-saving win at Philadelphia. The Packers defeated the Eagles 27-13. The victory snapped a 4-game losing streak and was their first road win since Week 1.
Free Betting Pick & Predictions: Texans +6.5
I’m going to take the contrarian approach and side with Houston on the road. Sure, Green Bay looked good against the Eagles on Monday Night Football, but that’s just one game. The public is going to be all over the Packers in this spot, creating big time value with the Texans.
Click on the link for more free football picks from our expert NFL handicappers.
Let’s not get too carried away with a win over the Eagles. Philadelphia has been trending in the wrong direction since their 3-0 start. In fact, the Eagles are just 2-6 over their last 8 games. They were also dealing with a ton of injuries on offense in that game against the Packers.
Even with the injuries, Philadelphia’s offense did some good things. Wentz was 24 of 36 (67%) with a 7.1 average per attempt. The Eagles also averaged a healthy 4.5 yards/carry, despite missing their starter Ryan Matthews.
I know the Texans aren’t exactly playing great football and are just 1-4 SU and ATS on the road. However, I think Osweiler and company can have some success here. Green Bay’s still missing a lot on defense and had given up 30+ in each of their previous 4 games.
The other key here is that Houston’s defense is more than capable of keeping Rodgers in check. Green Bay still has zero threat of a running game. They rushed it 28 times for just 74 yards against the Eagles (2.6 yards/carry). That means Rogers is going to have to throw a lot here and that plays into the strength of the Texans defense. Houston comes in ranked 5th in the league against the pass, allowing just 209.2 ypg. The Texans still have not allowed a single opponent this season to throw for more than 300 yards.
This is also not a great spot for the Packers. Green Bay will have one fewer day to prepare after playing on Monday Night Football. Under head coach Mike McCarthy, they have not fared well in this spot. Especially at home. The Packers are just 1-8 ATS at home after playing the previous week on Monday Night Football.
As for the Texans, they are in a situation where they have excelled of late. Under Bill O’Brien, Houston is a perfect 6-0 ATS after scoring 14 or less points. The Texans have also been covering machines against bad pass defenses under O’Brien. Houston is 13-2 ATS when facing a team that allows a completion percent of 64% or better. Winning in this spot by an average score of 25.6 to 16.6 (+9.0 ppg).