The Houston Texans (7-4) host the New England Patriots (10-1) this weekend for an all-AFC showdown on Sunday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 6:20 PM EST on December 1st at NRG Stadium and the game will be nationally televised on NBC.
Oddsmakers opened this game up with the Patriots listed as 3-point road favorites. The spread hasn’t moved at all after early betting, as New England is currently available at -3. The total for this matchup is 46.5 points. Click here for a full look at the Week 13 NFL odds and for more links to our individual game previews.
Texans vs Patriots Game Odds & Betting Preview
New England Patriots
The Patriots have now won ten out of their first eleven games after beating Dallas 13-9 at home last weekend to improve to 10-1 overall. New England scored seven unanswered points in the first quarter and never relinquished the lead, grinding out a tough victory through some nasty weather conditions. QB Tom Brady went 17/37 for 190 passing yards and a touchdown through the air while RB Sony Michel led the way on the ground with 85 rushing yards on a team-high 20 carries. Julian Edelman also chipped in, making eight catches for 93 yards. Overall, the Patriots gained just under 300 total yards of offense and found the end zone just once in the win.
New England was fantastic defensively against the Cowboys, as they didn’t allow a single touchdown despite giving up just over 300 total yards of offense. The Patriots completely shut down Dallas on the ground, allowing only 109 rushing yards.
The Texans locked up their third victory in four games last weekend, slipping by Indianapolis 20-17 at home to improve to 7-4 on the season overall. Houston trailed 17-13 at the end of the third quarter but pulled off an impressive comeback over the final 15 minutes of the game, scoring seven unanswered points to escape with a win. QB Deshaun Watson went 19/30 for 298 passing yards and two touchdowns through the air but also got picked off once as well. RB Carlos Hyde didn’t do all that much on the ground, churning out 67 yards on 16 carries. Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins torched the Colts secondary, combining for 234 passing yards and two touchdowns. As a whole, the Texans generated over 400 total yards of offense and scored two touchdowns against an above average defense.
Houston had a decent outing on the other side of the ball against the Colts, giving up just over 300 total yards of offense and two touchdowns. The Texans did a great job defending against the pass, surrendering only 129 yards through the air.
Free NFL Betting Predictions and Pick: UNDER 46.5
While I am also leaning slightly towards the Patriots against the spread in this primetime battle, my favorite play is the UNDER on 46.5 total points scored. Although New England currently has only lost one game outright the entire season, they have largely been getting by on the strength of their defense. Brady is also slowly starting to look his age, as the Pats offense has scored just 50 total points over their last three games combined. On the other side, Houston has also been on a bit of a downswing offensively, scoring no more than 27 points in five consecutive outings.
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It is also important to note that these two teams have certainly had their fair share of low scoring games so far this season, as the total has now gone UNDER in four out of Houston’s last five overall and in eight out of their last nine home games as well. A similar trend can also be seen with the Patriots, as the UNDER has come through in four out of their last five games. Finally, the UNDER has also hit in five out of New England’s last six games away from Gillette Stadium. Ultimately, while I still might consider laying the field goal and rolling with the road favorite, the optimal play in this matchup looks to be the UNDER on 46.5 total points scored.