This Saturday the LSU Tigers (8-3, 5-2 SEC) will host the Texas A&M Aggies (7-4, 4-3 SEC). Kickoff is set for 7:30 EST at Tiger Stadium and will be televised on the SEC Network.
Oddsmakers currently have the Tigers listed as a 10.5-point home favorite with the total set at 50 points. Check out our Week 13 NCAAF odds page for a full betting schedule, plus more links to our game previews.
Texas A&M vs LSU Vegas Betting Odds & Game Preview
The Aggies enter off a 31-24 win at Ole Miss as a 2.5-point favorite. Both teams traded scores early and the Rebels actually led 24-21 at intermission. Texas A&M turned up the defense and scored the only 10-points of the 2nd half for the win.
The Tigers went on the road and beat Tennessee 30-10 as a 17-point favorite. LSU took an early 17-3 lead, but the Volunteers made it 17-10 at the half. After that it was all Tigers, who scored the only 14-points over the final 2 period to secure the cover.
Last year the Tigers won 54-39 at Texas A&M as a 6.5-point road favorite. It was LSU’s sixth straight win in the series, as the Aggies have yet to beat the Tigers since joining the SEC back in 2012.
College Football Free Pick & Betting Predictions: Texas A&M +10.5
I think we are getting some great value here with the Aggies catching 10.5-points against the Tigers. LSU has covered 5 straight games and I believe it has them overvalued here in the final game of the season. Each of their last two wins haven’t been as impressive as the final score would indicate. They won by 23 at home against Arkansas two weeks ago, despite only lead 13-10 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. While they won by 20 last week at Tennessee, they were actually outgained on the game by the Volunteers.
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As for Texas A&M, I think the Aggies are flying under the radar. A lot of people just wrote off this team after that epic collapse in their opener at UCLA, but the Aggies have gone 7-3 since that defeat and the 3 losses have come against 3 of the best teams in the SEC in Alabama, Mississippi State and Auburn.
I believe the difference here is going to be Texas A&M’s ability to slow down the Tigers offense. The Aggies don’t have great numbers against the run, as they are allowing 157 ypg and 4.1 yards/carry, but a lot of that has to do with who they have played. Texas A&M has faced a lot of good running teams and are actually holding opponents 25 yards under their season average and over a 1/2-yard less per/carry than what they average. While the Tigers have scored 30+ in each of their last 2, it came against two of the worst defenses in the SEC.
Offensively it’s not going to come easy for Texas A&M, but they certainly have the playmakers to move the chains and put up points against this LSU defense.
Another key factor here for me is revenge. The Aggies have to be sick and tired of losing to LSU. That’s a big plus here, as there’s not a whole lot at stake for either of these teams. I think they have a decent shot at pulling off the upset, but I really like their chances of keeping this within the number.
LSU is just 14-34 ATS in their last 48 home games in the final 3 weeks of the regular season and a mere 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games when they come in having covered 3 or more games in a row. Give me the Aggies +10.5.