The #18 Texas Longhorns travel to Manhattan this weekend to take on the Kansas State Wildcats in a Big 12 showdown. Kickoff is set for 3:30 PM EST at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium and the game will be available on the Fox Sports 1.
Taking a look at the Week 5 college football odds, Texas opened as a 7-point road favorite earlier this week. That line has increased slightly after early betting, as the Longhorns are currently listed at -8.5. The total for the game is sitting at 48 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Kansas State vs Texas
Texas won their third consecutive game last weekend after losing to Maryland in Week 1, rolling over the TCU Horned Frogs 31-16. Turnovers played a key role in the outcome, as Texas won the battle 4-0. QB Sam Ehlinger looked great while leading the Longhorns offense to a second consecutive 30+ point game, passing for 255 yards and two touchdowns against a solid TCU defense. Ehilinger now gets to face a Kansas State passing defense that is ranked 81st overall. He will hopefully get a little bit more help from the ground game over the next several weeks, as Texas is currently averaging just 163.8 rushing yards per game (83rd). As a whole, the Longhorns are currently averaging 31.3 points per game (65th) on 411.0 total yards (69th).
The Longhorns have been pretty good defensively, especially against the run where they are giving up just 117.0 yards per game on the ground (29th). Texas has struggled a little bit against the pass, however, as opponents have found a way to average 245.3 yards per game through the air (90th). Overall, they are allowing 21.2 points per game (43rd).
Kansas State got crushed 35-6 by West Virginia last weekend to fall back to .500 on the season. The Wildcats have looked terrible in their two games against teams currently ranked inside of the Top 25, getting outscored 66-16. Despite winning the turnover battle 4-1 against the Mountaineers, Kansas State still gave up almost 500 total yards. Wildcats QB Skylar Thompson hasn’t been able to get a whole lot going through the air, passing for just 505 yards and four touchdowns so far (126 yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game). As a whole, the Wildcats have struggled across the board on offense, as they currently rank 99th in passing, 94th in rushing, and 114th in points per game (21.0).
Things haven’t been much better on the other side of the ball, as Kansas State is currently ranked 93rd overall in total defense. They are also giving up an average of 26.8 points per game to opponents (76th). The Wildcats could be in for a long afternoon against a Texas passing offense that is currently averaging 247.3 yards per game through the air (54th).
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: Texas -8.5
Texas has been on a pretty big roll over the last several weeks and is coming off impressive wins over USC and TCU. The offense has really found another gear and should have no problem putting points on the board against a Kansas State team that has not performed well against quality teams. While the Wildcats might be able to keep this one close for a quarter or two, I’m pretty confident that the Longhorns will be able to pull away in the second half and win by 10+ points. Kansas State only managed to score 16 points combined against Mississippi State and West Virginia, so I’d be shocked if they are able to get anything going offensively on Saturday afternoon.
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Kansas State is just 1-4 ATS over their past five home games and 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall. Texas has done quite well against the spread lately, going 5-2 ATS in their past seven road games, 5-2-1 ATS over their past eight games following an ATS win, and 11-5 ATS over their past sixteen games overall.
The Longhorns are clearly the better team on both sides of the ball, especially offensively. They are also much better than the Wildcats in terms of rushing and scoring defense. Texas has only one glaring weakness – their ability to defend against the pass. However, Kansas State has been one of the worst teams nationwide through the air all season long. Their starting quarterback is barely averaging 100 passing yards per game and has repeatedly shown that he is prone to turning the ball over. If Texas can find a way to stop an already sub-par Kansas State offense, they should have no problem putting up enough points to cover this single-digit spread. I’ll lay the points and take the Longhorns on the road.