The Troy Trojans (4-5) travel to San Marcos this weekend for a Sun Belt Conference showdown against the Texas State Bobcats (3-6). Kickoff is set for 3:00 PM EST on November 16th at Bobcat Stadium and the game will be televised on ESPN3.

Taking a look at the Week 12 college football odds, Texas State opened as a 8-point home underdog earlier this week. The spread has come down by a full point after early betting, as the Bobcats are currently available at +7. The total for the game is sitting at 63 points.

Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Texas State vs Troy

Troy snapped a two game losing slide last weekend, beating GA Southern 49-28 at home to improve to 4-5 on the season overall. The Trojans scored 14 unanswered points in the first quarter and never looked back, cruising to a double-digit victory over the final 45 minutes of the game. QB Kaleb Barker went 27/41 for 330 passing yards and three touchdowns through the air while also adding six carries for 36 rushing yards. RB DK Billingsley was a monster on the ground, exploding for 163 rushing yards and two touchdowns on just 14 carries. Kaylon Geiger led the way for the receiving corps, making seven receptions for 110 yards. Overall, Troy gained over 600 total yards and found the end zone six times on offense.

The Trojans weren’t nearly as impressive on the other side of the ball against Georgia Southern, giving up over 300 total yards of offense and four touchdowns. Troy really struggled to contain Eagles WR Malik Murray, as he made three catches for 95 yards and two touchdowns.

Texas State put an end to their three game losing streak last weekend, slipping by South Alabama 30-28 at home to move to 3-6 on the season overall. The Bobcats trailed by a single point at the half but managed to take the lead for good in the third quarter after scoring two touchdowns. QB Tyler Vitt went 23/33 for 373 passing yards and three touchdowns through the air while also leading the way on the ground with 42 rushing yards on 11 carries. Hutch White also chipped in, hauling in a game-high ten receptions for 165 yards. As a whole, Texas State generated well over 400 total yards of offense and scored three touchdowns in the win.

The Bobcats were average at best defensively against South Alabama, surrendering over 350 total yards of offense and four touchdowns. Texas State had no answer for the Jaguars running attack, as they racked up almost 200 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: Troy -7

Even though there still doesn’t appear to be a ton of value on either side against the spread, I don’t mind rolling with the Trojans now that the number has come down by a full point. Troy should find a way to win this game outright despite playing on the road, as they have clearly been the better team on both sides of the ball so far this season. Texas State has also been brutal against the spread through their first nine games, going just 1-7-1 ATS overall. The Bobcats have really struggled at home this year as well, covering the number just once over their last four outings. It hasn’t gone well for them against Sun Belt opponents as of late either, as they are only 0-5-1 against the spread in their last six conference matchups.

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Troy has also dominated this Sun Belt Conference rivalry in recent years, going a perfect 4-0 outright over their last four meetings. They have certainly had the upper hand against the spread as well, covering the number in three out of their last four battles with the Bobcats. Finally, the Trojans have averaged almost four more touchdowns per game than Texas State has over that same time span. I’m going to lay the seven points and take a shot with the road favorite in what should be yet another loss against the spread for the Bobcats on Saturday afternoon.