This Saturday the No. 17 ranked TCU Horned Frogs will travel to Austin to take on the Texas Longhorns. Kickoff for this Big 12 showdown is set for 4:30 EST at Royal Texas Memorial Stadium and will be televised nationally on FOX.

Oddsmakers opened up with TCU as a slim 2.5-point road favorite, but that number has jumped a full point, as the Horned Frogs are now -3.5. The total opened at 49 and it’s been bet down to 47.5. Click here for  a full look at the Week 4 betting odds and for more links to our game previews.

Texas vs TCU Vegas Game Odds & Betting Predictions

The Horned Frogs come into this one off a 28-40 loss to No. 4 Ohio State on a neutral field (AT&T Stadium). TCU more than held their own, as they actually led at the half and were still in front midway thru the 3rd quarter. The Buckeyes took the lead on a 28-yard interception return for a score and never trailed the rest of the way. While the outcome wasn’t what TCU had hoped for, they did push as a 12-point dog.

Texas also had a big game on the schedule last week, as they hosted USC. The Longhorns got their revenge from last year’s overtime loss, as they routed the Trojans 37-14 was a mere 3-point home favorite. It was a big time performance for Texas, who needed a statement win after losing to Maryland in their opener and barely scraping by with a win over Tulsa at home.

This hasn’t exactly been a competitive affair in recent meetings. TCU has won 4 straight in the series, all by at least 17 points. Last year the Horned Frogs won 24-7 as a 7.5-point home favorite.

Free NCAA Football Pick Against the Spread: TCU -3.5

This is one that I’m probably going to stay away from, but if push came to shove, I would lean towards laying the small number with TCU. For me, I just don’t trust this Texas team. The win over USC looks great on paper, but that’s not a great Trojans team. I also still can’t get forget about that loss to Maryland in the opener.

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Last year you could make the excuse that Texas was overlooking the Terps, but not this year. Not to mention that loss to Maryland looks even worse after the Terps were just annihilated at home by Temple 35-14. Note the Owls came into that came 0-2 with losses at home to Villanova and Buffalo. On top of that, the Tulsa team they struggled to beat two weeks ago lost at home to Arkansas State this past Saturday. 

Even though it came in a loss, TCU proved that they are for real. They lost by just 12-points, despite the Buckeyes scoring two defensive touchdowns. The yardage battle was almost identical, as Ohio State had 526 and the Horned Frogs had 511. Note that if you take away the two defensive scores, TCU held the Ohio State offense to just 26 points.

TCU’s defense is the best in the Big 12 and when you can get consistent stops on that side of the ball, you can go on the road and take down quality opponents. That defense is a big reason why the Horned Frogs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.

You also can’t ignore the history of this series with the Horned Frogs winning 4 straight by at least 17 points. I know Texas head coach, Tom Herman, has been there for just one of them, but last year’s Longhorns team only managed 263 total yards against the TCU defense. Adding to this, the Horned Frogs have covered 4 of their last 5 trips to Austin.

It’s also worth noting that Texas has not been a good team to back when coming off a blowout win. The Longhorns are a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a win by more than 20 points.