The Baylor Bears look to build off their first win of the season when they play the Texas Tech Red Raiders in a neutral site game. Kickoff is noon EST on Saturday, November 11 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The game is available on Fox Sports Net.
Oddsmakers list Texas Tech as a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 71.5 points. Click here for a full list of Week 11 betting odds and links to game previews.
Texas Tech vs Baylor Game Preview & Betting Odds
The Bears finally got one in the win column last week with a blowout win over Kansas behind freshman quarterback Charlie Brewer. This has obviously been a lost year for Baylor in Matt Rhule’s first season. But they would certainly like to add another win or two late in the season to help build momentum toward next year. The Bears played ranked teams the final two weeks of the season, so this may be their best chance to grab a second win.
Texas Tech, meanwhile, is holding onto bowl hopes that are quickly evaporating. The Red Raiders are 1-5 in Big 12 play, the same record as Baylor, and 4-5 overall. They have lost four games in a row and can’t afford to lose to Baylor and hope to reach a bowl game. Even if they beat Baylor, there’s no guarantee the Raiders will reach six wins.
Free College Football Against the Spread Pick: Baylor +7.5
Baylor was borderline impressive against Kansas last week. To be fair, most teams look impressive playing Kansas. But Texas Tech isn’t exactly a top-tier Big 12 team. In fact, they’re not even a middle-of-the-pack team. I don’t see the Red Raiders as being more than a touchdown better than Baylor on a neutral field. I’ll lean toward the Bears and the points in this game.
Despite an atrocious 1-8 record, the Bears have managed to stay competitive with the likes of Oklahoma, Kansas State, and West Virginia. Based on that, they’re certainly capable of keeping things close with Texas Tech. Outside of Kansas and Eastern Washington, the Red Raiders haven’t been able to blow out teams this year, beating Arizona State and Houston in one-possession games.
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Texas Tech’s biggest problem is on the defensive side of the ball. I expect quarterback Nic Shimonek to have a big day against a poor Baylor defense. But the Texas Tech defense is nearly as bad. Even mediocre offensive teams have been able to move the ball and score points against the Red Raiders this season.
Last week, Kansas State’s second- and third-string quarterbacks combined to go 18 for 28 for 263 yards and two touchdowns throwing the ball against Texas Tech. Iowa State, another average offensive team, scored 31 points against the Red Raiders last month, winning comfortably with a balanced offensive attack.
If teams like Kansas State and Iowa State can score a substantial amount of points against the Texas Tech defense, Baylor can do the same. To be fair, Brewer will only be making his second career start. But he looked comfortable and confident last week. He also has plenty of playmakers around him, most notably Denzel Mims, one of the top receivers in the Big 12.
With such a poor defense, I’m not convinced Texas Tech is that much better than Baylor. After all, both teams have just one conference win this season. The Bears are just as capable of scoring points as the Red Raiders, which makes me think this game will be decided by a touchdown or less. I’ll stick with Baylor and the points.