The Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-4) host the #19 overall Texas Longhorns (6-3) on Saturday night in Big 12 action. Kickoff is set for 7:30 PM EST at AT&T Stadium and the game will be broadcast on FOX.
Taking a look at the Week 11 college football odds, Texas opened as a 1-point road underdog earlier this week. That line has shifted by two full points after early betting, as the Longhorns are currently listed at -1. The total for the game is sitting at 64 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Texas Tech vs Texas
Texas lost their second game in a row last weekend, falling 42-41 against West Virginia to drop back to 6-3 on the season overall. The Longhorns looked to be rocketing up the AP Top 25 several weeks ago, beating Oklahoma 48-45. However, consecutive loses against Baylor and the Mountaineers have left them searching for answers. QB Sam Ehlinger played great in Week 10, throwing for 354 yards and three touchdowns while also adding 52 yards and a touchdown on the ground. RB Tre Watson also had a great game offensively, racking up 115 total yards and two touchdowns. The dynamic receiving duo of Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Devin Duvernay also got in on the act, combining for 243 yards and two touchdowns. As a whole, the offense is currently averaging 32.3 points per game (38th overall).
The Longhorns have been slightly below average defensively so far this season, as opponents have scored 26.8 points per game (66th overall). They have really been poor against the pass, giving up 256.4 yards per game through the air (103rd overall).
Texas Tech almost upset Oklahoma last weekend, falling 51-46 in a close game that came right down to the wire. The Red Raiders were fantastic on the offensive side of the ball, racking up almost 500 total yards. The QB duo of Alan Bowman and Jett Duffey combined for 365 yards and four touchdowns, as Bowman was forced to leave at the beginning of the second half after getting hit in the head during warmups. Duffey also added 47 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground, so there was certainly no drop off in performance at the position. WR Antoine Wesley chipped in with a big day as well, racking up 12 receptions for 199 yards. Overall, Texas Tech is currently averaging 42.7 points per game (9th overall) on 522.1 yards of total offense (9th overall).
On the other side of the ball, the Red Raiders are currently giving up an average of 30.7 points per game (88th overall). They have been especially bad against the pass, allowing opponents to throw for 291.9 yards per game through the air (124th overall).
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: Texas -1
In a late week update, it appears that the errant football in the head wasn’t the cause of Alan Bowman’s absence in the second half, as he was forced to go to the hospital after suffering a second partially collapsed lung. In any event, Bowman is out for Week 11, which means the Red Raiders will turn to backup Jett Duffey yet again. I know that Duffey played well for two quarters last week, but I’d like to see a bigger sample size before taking a shot with Texas Tech in this particular spot. Texas has the better defense, the better overall record, and is the only team currently ranked inside of the AP Top 25 Poll. While I do expect the Red Raiders to keep this one close, I still think the Longhorns offer the best value in what is basically a pick’em at this point.
Click on the link for more free college football picks from our experts on staff.
Texas is a very solid 4-1 ATS over their last five meetings with Texas Tech on the road. The road team is also a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four games between these two schools. Finally, the Longhorns are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Red Raiders overall. Texas Tech has gone 3-12 straight up in their last 15 meetings with Texas and is just 3-7 straight up in their last ten home games.
There is no doubt that Texas Tech has been the more consistent team on offense so far this season, but I’m not necessarily sure that matters after looking how both teams fared against Oklahoma. The Longhorns managed to pull off an impressive 48-45 victory, while the Red Raiders ended up losing by 5 points while allowing the Sooners to rack up almost 700 yards of total offense. Texas also crushed TCU by double-digits, while the Red Raiders needed a late field goal to escape with a 17-14 victory. All in all, I like the team with the better overall record in this matchup – I’ll lay the single point and roll with the road favorite in what should be a highly entertaining battle.