This Sunday the Indianapolis Colts will host the Tennessee Titans in a key AFC South matchup. Kickoff is set for 1:00 EST at Lucas Oil Stadium and will be televised locally on CBS. Oddsmakers have the Colts as a 3-point favorite with the total set at 52.5 points. Click here for more free Week 11 betting leans and game odds.

Titans vs Colts Vegas Odds Preview

Tennessee (5-5) comes in off an impressive 47-25 blowout win at home over the Packers. The Titans jumped out to a 21-0 lead in the 1st quarter and never looked back. Marcus Mariota and DeMarco Murray led the way. Mariota threw for 295 yards and 4 scores, while Murray rushed for 123 yards and a touchdown.

Indianapolis (4-5) will be returning from their bye week also off a win against Green Bay. The Colts went into Lambeau and defeated the Packers 31-26 in Week 9. They too led big over the Packers early, taking a 14-3 lead in the 1st quarter. They also led 31-13 in the 4th before Green Bay made it close at the end.

Free Pick & Betting Predictions: Colts -3

My early lean here would have to be on Indianapolis laying just 3-points at home. This has been about as lopsided of a series as you will find in the NFL. The Colts improved to a perfect 8-0 with Andrew Luck against the Titans with a 34-26 win at Tennessee back in Week 7. Going back even further, the Indy has won 15 of the last 16 meetings.

Click on the link for more free NFL football picks from our experts on staff.

I also think we are getting some value here. The Colts have a big advantage here coming off their bye. A spot the Colts have really done well in the past. Indianapolis is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 off a bye.

One thing you have to keep in mind with Indy’s record, is they were hit hard with injuries early in the year. They are finally starting to get healthy again. Where you really see the improvement is in their secondary, which was decimated early on.

In the first meeting against the Titans, Luck had his way with the Tennessee defense. He went 27-39 for 353 yards and 3 scores. Most importantly, he was only sacked twice. Keep in mind he did that without one of his best wide outs in Donte Moncrief. He’s back healthy and will only make it that much harder for the Titans to slow down this Colts offense.

It’s not just the Colts the Titans struggle against. Tennessee is a mere 2-12 ATS in their last 14 against the AFC South. They are also just 3-15 ATS in their last 18 against teams from the same conference. The Titans have also failed to deliver after a win. They are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after a victory.

The Colts on the other hand have been a great bet this time of year. Indianapolis is a dominant 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games in the month of November. The Colts are also a great home team. Indy is 27-12-1 ATS in their last 40 home games.