The Tennessee Titans (6-6) are set to host the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:20 EST at Nissan Stadium and will be televised nationally on FOX.
Taking a look at the Week 14 NFL odds, the books have the Tennessee listed as a 4-point home favorite with the total set at 37.5 points.
Jags vs Titans Vegas Odds & Game Preview
Jacksonville snapped their 7-game losing streak with a 6-0 win at home against the Colts as a 4.5-point underdog. It was a surprising result to a lot of people, as Indianapolis came into that game having won 5 in a row and had scored no fewer than 24 points since Week 3. Not to mention it came in the first game after the Jags benched Blake Bortles in favor of Cody Kessler. Unfortunately for Jacksonville, it came a little too late in terms of making the playoffs.
Tennessee enters off a huge come-from-behind win at home against the Jets. The Titans trailed New York 16-0 with less than 3 minutes to play in the 2nd quarter and were still down 22-13 going into the 4th. They ended up winning 26-22, but the Jets still covered as a 10-point dog. Tennessee is 1-game back of Baltimore for the final Wild Card spot in the AFC, but there are several teams tied with them at 6-6.
These two teams met back in Week 3 at Jacksonville. The Jaguars were fresh off that impressive 31-20 win over the Patriots and went off as a 10-point favorite. However, it was Tennessee who won outright 9-6 in a game where neither team had more than 235 yards of total offense.
Free Pick & NFL Betting Prediction: Titans -4
I typically look to take the OVER in these Thursday games and would definitely lean that way, but these are two really bad offensive teams. With that said, I would have to lean towards laying the points with Tennessee at home, as there’s nothing about the Jags upset win over the Colts that makes me think it’s a sign of things to come.
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The reality here is the Jaguars had no business winning a game where they totaled just 211 yards and 6 points. Had the Colts just kicked field goals instead of going for it on 4th down, they likely win the game outright. I also think Indianapolis’ offense is a bit out of sync with the injury to starting center Ryan Kelly, but either way they should have won that game.
I get that enough is enough for the Jaguars and wanting to go a different direction than Blake Bortles, but Cody Kessler is a downgrade at the position. Jacksonville is also running an out-dated offense with lackluster weapons outside of running back Leonard Fournette.
I just think given how hard it was for Jacksonville to get 1st downs at home against a mediocre Colts defense, they are going to have a horrible time putting up points against a really good Titans defense. Tennessee comes in ranked 3rd in the NFL, giving up just 315.6 ypg and are 6th in scoring defense, allowing only 20.4 ppg.
Let’s not forget when these two teams met up in Week 3, the Titans held Jacksonville to just 232 total yards and 12 first downs. Jags were without Fournette, but I don’t think he makes a huge difference with how little the Tennessee defense is going to have to respect the passing game with Kessler at quarterback.
You also can’t ignore just how big an advantage the home team has in these Thursday Night Games. These games are brutal on the road team and given how the Jags are basically playing for just pride with a 4-8 record, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if they didn’t show up at all for this game. Either way, I think this line should be closer to a touchdown and not a field goal.
Tennessee is 12-4-1 ATS last 17 home games, including a 7-3 record in their last 10 home games vs a team with a losing road record. Jags are just 1-5-2 ATS last 8 games overall and 0-3-1 ATS last 4 games on the road. Give me the Titans -4!