The Tennessee Titans look to stay on top of the AFC South this week as they host the Houston Texans. Kickoff is set for 1:00 EST on Sunday, December 3 at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee. Fans in local markets can watch the game on CBS.

Oddsmakers list the Titans as 6.5-point favorites at home with an over/under of 43.5 points. Click here to check out a full list of the Week 13 betting odds and links to more game previews.

Titans vs Texans Vegas Game Odds & Betting Predictions

After last week’s come-from-behind win over the Colts, Tennessee is 7-4 on the season. The Titans are currently tied with the Jaguars for the top spot in the AFC South. Considering the state of the AFC this year, both teams have to feel good about their chances of reaching the playoffs. But there’s a big difference between winning the division and being a wild card team, and so the Titans will do everything they can to secure a division title.

The Texans, meanwhile, are 4-7 and may have to win out just to have a chance at a wild-card spot. Not surprisingly, things have gone downhill for Houston since losing Deshaun Watson to injury. The Texans have lost four of their last five games, including the final game that Watson started. His absence makes any kind of late-season playoff push unlikely.

These two division rivals met for the first time this season back in Week 4. Behind an outstanding performance from Watson, the Texans won that game 57-14. It’s also worth noting that Marcus Mariota failed to complete that game because of injury. As a result, it’s tough to put too much stock into what happened between these two teams in their previous meeting.

NFL Betting Free Pick Against the Spread: Texans +6.5

I have to give the Texans credit. They’ve struggled to win without Watson, but they’ve still been competitive in games. Losses to both the Ravens and Colts since Watson went down were by a touchdown or less. They also have a win over the Cardinals on their resume since then. Beating the Titans on the road will be tough. But I’ll lean toward the Texans to keep it close and beat the spread.

As for a Titans, they may have a good record, but they’re rarely head and shoulders better than their opponent. Of their seven wins this year, only two have come by more than six points. That doesn’t give me a lot of confidence that they can cover a 6.5-point spread.

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Part of the problem is the Tennessee defense. They’re ranked toward the bottom half of the NFL in points allowed, which isn’t what you’d expect for a division leader. Other than the Browns, every team they’ve played this year has scored at least 16 points against them. Even with Tom Savage running the Houston offense, the Texans should be able to manage at least that many points. 

The Tennessee offense is also not as explosive as one would think for a division leader. Mariota has more interceptions than touchdowns this season, including six picks over the past two weeks. The Titans need to run the ball effectively to open up the passing game, which is fine. But it also makes it tough for them to pull away from teams. The Texans have also been decent at stopping the run this year, so it’s doubtful that the Titans will have an easy time getting large chunks of yards on the ground. 

The Texans have also been decent at stopping the run this year, so it’s doubtful that the Titans will have an easy time getting large chunks of yards on the ground. That should lead to a low-scoring game that involves both teams trying to win in the trenches and establish a ground attack.

Ultimately, the Texans will be hard-pressed to win this game, especially on the road. However, the Titans haven’t proven that they can put inferior teams away and win by comfortable margins. Tennessee’s last four wins have come against the Colts, Bengals, Ravens, and Browns, and all were won by four points or less. I see no reason why this game will be any different, so I’ll take the Texans and the points.