The Toledo Rockets hope to bounce back from last week’s loss when they visit the Bowling Green Falcons. Game time is 8:00 EST on Wednesday, November 15 at Doyt Perry Stadium in Bowling Green, Ohio. The game can be seen on ESPNU.

Oddsmakers view the Rockets as 17-point favorites on the road with an over/under of 63 points. Click here to check out a full list of Week 12 betting odds and links to game previews.

Bowling Green vs Toledo Vegas Odds Preview

Toledo’s perfect record in MAC play was ruined last week when they lost 38-10 to Ohio. The loss broke a five-game winning streak and dropped Toledo to 5-1 in conference play and 8-2 overall. The Rockets will have a chance to get their revenge on the Bobcats in the MAC Championship Game. But only if they can take care of business in their last two games against Bowling Green and Western Michigan.

The Falcons, meanwhile, are 2-8 and just playing out the season. It’s been a long two years under Mike Jinks, who is just 6-16 since taking over at Bowling Green. But Wednesday will be senior night at Bowling Green, and the Falcons would love nothing more than to ruin Toledo’s season.

Separated by less than 30 miles, these two schools have a rather heated rivalry. Of course, that rivalry has been one-sided in recent years. Even when Bowling Green was good enough to play in the MAC title game in 2014 and 2015, the Falcons couldn’t beat Toledo. The Rockets have won the last seven meetings between the two teams.

Free Betting Pick & Predictions: Toledo -17

My early lean in this game is toward Toledo. I’m actually surprised that the game opened with a spread that’s less than 20 points. The Rockets should be able to bounce back from last week’s loss and beat an overmatched Bowling Green team. Even on the road, I like the Rockets to cover a 17-point spread.

The Rockets were flat-out beat up in the trenches last week against Ohio. On defense, they were powerless to stop Ohio’s run-heavy offense, giving up nearly 400 yards rushing. On offense, they couldn’t get their running game going and they allowed quarterback Logan Woodside to get sacked four times. However, I don’t see Bowling Green being able to win at the line of scrimmage against the Rockets the way Ohio did.

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When the Falcons have played quality offensive teams, they’ve struggled to stop them. Both Ohio and Northern Illinois scored 48 points against them. Even Buffalo put 38 points on the board against Bowling Green last week. The Falcons may be fired up for a rivalry game. But I’m not sure that’ll be enough to stop Toledo over the course of 60 minutes. 

Despite an off day last week against Ohio, the Rockets are still one of the most explosive offenses in the MAC. Woodside has nearly 3,000 passing yards on the season with 20 touchdowns and just two interceptions. He played well last week against Ohio but didn’t get enough help from the players around him. It’s hard to believe Woodside and the Toledo offense having two bad games in a row, especially against a porous Bowling Green defense.

On the other side of the ball, the Falcons have been up and down offensively all season. There’s been inconsistency at the quarterback position, with freshman Jarret Doege currently the starter. To be fair, Doege has played well the past couple of weeks, tossing five touchdowns with no interceptions. But against quality opponents, the Falcons have struggled to score, and on the season they are averaging less than 24 points per game.

Ultimately, there’s too much of a talent gap between these two teams. Even if Bowling Green plays well during the first half, the Rockets will still have plenty of time to take control of the game and cover the spread after the emotion of a rivalry game wears off. I’d be surprised if Toledo doesn’t score enough points to cover.