This Friday the BYU Cougars (1-3) will host the Toledo Rockets (3-0) in Week 5 action. Kickoff is set for 10:15 EST at LaVell Edwards Stadium and will be televised on ESPN2. Oddsmakers have BYU as a 3.5-point favorite and the total set at 52 points.
Toledo vs BYU Vegas Odds Preview
The Rockets will return from their early bye week looking to remain perfect. Toledo has three blowout wins on the resume. They won 31-10 at Arkansas State, 45-3 at home against Maine and 52-17 at home against Fresno State.
BYU opened the season with a 18-16 win against Arizona, but have since lost 3 straight. All of which they could have just as easily won. They lost 19-20 at Utah, 14-17 at home to UCLA and 32-35 on a neutral field last week against West Virginia.
Free Pick & Betting Predictions: Toledo +3.5
Even though Toledo is 3-0 and BYU is just 1-3, I fully expect the public to be on the Cougars Friday. Oddsmakers are well aware of this, yet BYU is only a 3.5-point favorite. Keep in mind this line actually opened at 4.5, so early sharp money is on the Rockets.
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The big thing that everyone is going to point to is the level of competition for both teams. Toledo has beat up on some bad teams in Arkansas State, Maine and Fresno State. BYU on the other hand has 3 losses to the likes of Utah, UCLA and West Virginia. All coming by 3-points or less.
While Toledo has played some bad teams, it’s not like they are just scraping by against them. The Rockets have absolutely dominated the opposition. They come in averaging 42.7 ppg on a 564 ypg. Defensively they are only giving up 10.0 ppg and 252 ypg.
If you have watched Toledo play, you know they like to play fast offensively. Similarly to BYU’s last opponent in West Virginia. The Mountaineers up-tempo attack had plenty of success against the Cougars defense. West Virginia put up 481 yards and racked up 26 first downs. Most of that coming through the air, as Skylar Howard completed 31 of 40 attempts for 332 yards.
Toledo’s offense is led by the play of talented junior quarterback Logan Woodside. He’s completed 62.2% of his attempts with 11 touchdowns to just 1 interception. It’s not just the passing game BYU has to be worried about. The Cougars as a team are averaging 5.2 yards/carry on the ground. They have three talented backs who can wear down a defense.
Another big factor here that I think is getting overlooked is the fact that Toledo is coming off a bye. So while BYU is playing on just 5 days of rest, the Rockets will have had 12 days off since their last game. Keep in mind that the Cougars have played a gauntlet of a schedule to start and all 4 games have come down to the wire. If BYU doesn’t give Toledo the respect it deserves, I could easily see the Rockets winning this game.
BYU is just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games against teams who are averaging 450 or more totals yards/game. Toledo is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games and 20-6 ATS in their last 26 off a home win by 28 or more points.