This Wednesday the Northern Illinois Huskies will take on the Toledo Rockets. Kickoff for this Week 11 contest is set for 8:00 EST at U.S. Cellular Field (home of the Chicago White Sox). The game will be televised on ESPN2. Oddsmakers have the Rockets listed as a 6.5-point favorite over the Huskies.

Toledo vs Northern Illinois Vegas Betting Preview

The Rockets (7-2, 4-1 MAC) come in off an impressive 48-17 win at Akron. Covering as a 10.5-point road favorite. It was a big bounce back win for Toledo, who had lost at home the previous week to Ohio. The Rockets still have a shot at winning the MAC West, but will need to win out.

The Huskies (3-6, 3-2 MAC) enter off a 45-10 blowout win at home over Bowling Green. Northern Illinois covered in that one as a big 17-point favorite. The Huskies are now 4-1 ATS in their last 5.

Northern Illinois has won each of the last 6 meetings in this series. Though the last two have been close. Last year Toledo lost 27-32 at home. The previous season they fell 24-27 on the road to the Huskies.

Free Pick & Spread Predictions: Toledo -6.5

My early lean here is on the Rockets to win here by at least a touchdown. I believe the fact that Northern Illinois has covered 4 of 5 has kept this line lower than it should be. While the Huskies aren’t as good as expected, it’s not going to change how Toledo views this game. The Rockets have had this one circled on the calendar since the schedule was released.

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The inability to beat Northern Illinois has cost Toledo a spot in the MAC title game each of the last two years. They aren’t going to feel the least bit bad about taking it to the Huskies when they are down.

Northern Illinois is 3-2 in the MAC, but their 3 wins are against Ball State, Buffalo and Bowling Green. Those are the 3 worst teams in the conference, with a combined record of 2-13 in league play.

The big problem for the Huskies this season has been their defense, which ranks 109th in the country. They are equally bad against the run (95th) as they are the pass (98th).

That’s a major concern here against a dynamic Toledo offense, which ranks 4th in the nation at 553 ypg. Junior quarterback Logan Woodside has already thrown for over 3,000 yards. He’s also got an impressive 34-5 touchdown-interception ratio with a 71% completion rate. The Rockets also have two dynamic backs in Kareem Hunt and Terry Swanson. Combined the two have rushed for 1,433 yards and 9 scores.

I believe Toledo’s defense can get enough stops here to win this one by at least 7-points. I also think there’s a good chance this could get ugly. A lot has to go right for the Huskies to keep this one close.

I know it’s going to feel like a home game at US Cellular Field, but it’s worth noting that Northern Illinois is just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 on a neutral field. Toledo has also been a great team to back off a blowout win. The Rockets are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 off a win by 28 or more points.