The (9-2) Troy Trojans meet the (7-3) Arkansas State Red Wolves this weekend in Sun Belt Conference action. Kickoff is set for 7:30 PM EST on Saturday, December 2nd from Centennial Bank Stadium in Jonesboro, Arkansas. The game will be televised on ESPN2.
The Red Wolves enter the game as 1.5-point favorites. Early betting has shifted the line slightly, as Arkansas State originally opened at -1. The over/under is set at 59 points. Click here for a full list of Week 14 betting odds and links to game previews.
Troy vs Arkansas State Game Preview & Betting Odds
The Trojans recently recorded their fifth straight victory with a convincing 62-9 win over Texas State to improve to 9-2 on the season. QB Brandon Silvers threw for 380 yards and added four touchdowns to lead the way for Troy on offense. The Trojans put up over 600 total yards as a team and really appear to be firing on all cylinders right now. On the other side of the ball, Troy is ranked 17th overall nationwide in terms of total defense. The Trojans have limited opponents to an average of just 315.9 total yards per game. Troy has also excelled at scoring defense, as the Trojans are allowing an average of just 16.8 points against per game (10th overall). Finally, they have been fantastic against the run as well, giving up just 109.8 rushing yards per game en route to a 7th overall ranking.
Arkansas State moved to 7-3 on the year after putting up 67 points against Louisiana-Monroe their last time out. QB Justice Hansen passed for a ridiculous 520 yards and four touchdowns in that game. As a whole, the Red Wolves managed to record an astronomical 781 yards of total offense while dominating the Warhawks in all facets of the game. Defensively, Arkansas State has also been fairly solid, allowing an average of 388.5 total yards per game (59th). They also have the 45th ranked scoring defense, allowing opponents to score an average of 24.2 points per game.
Free College Football Against the Spread Pick: Troy +1.5
This one is shaping up to be an extremely close game between two relatively equally matched teams. Both Troy and Arkansas State have been really solid since puzzling loses against South Alabama. Although the Red Wolves are playing at home this weekend, I still think that I’m going to lean towards the Trojans in this one. Troy has the better record overall (9-2) and also is ranked inside the top 25 nationwide in pretty much every defensive category. Arkansas State has been relatively solid defensively as well, but are much closer to the middle of the pack than the Trojans are. Throw in the fact that I’m also getting free points and I think that Troy offers very reasonable value.
Click on the link for more free NCAA football picks against the spread and total.
Troy is 8-3 ATS over their past eleven games against teams with a winning record. They are also 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games. However, it should also be noted that Arkansas State has also been impressive against the spread lately. The Red Wolves are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games against opponents with a winning record.
The Trojans have now won nine out of their last ten games while also limiting opponents to 17 points or fewer in four out of their past five games. They have also yet to give up more than 24 points in any game so far this season. As I mentioned previously, Arkansas State has been slightly worse defensively – and they also just gave up 50 points to UL-Monroe last weekend. I’m taking Troy to win this one outright on the road.