This Wednesday we get another Sun Belt matchup to bet on. This week it’s the Troy Trojans hosting the South Alabama Jaguars. Kickoff is set for 8:00 EST at Veterans Memorial Stadium and will be televised on ESPN2.
Oddsmakers opened up the line for this game at Troy -14.5, but early money on the Trojans has it up to -15 at most books. The total for this game opened at 55 and is down to 54.5 at some places.
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South Alabama vs Troy Vegas Game Odds & Betting Preview
South Alabama Jaguars (1-5, 0-2 Sun Belt)
The Jaguars have not played since Oct. 3rd when they hosted Georgia Southern in a Thursday night game. The Jaguars ended up losing 20-17 in double-overtime. It was their fourth straight loss overall, as their only win is against Jackson State.
While wins have been hard to come by, South Alabama does enter off back-to-back covers. They were a 10-point dog in that near upset win over Georgia Southern. The week before they lost 30-17 at ULM as a 14.5-point dog. Overall the Jaguars are 3-3 against the number in 2019.
The UNDER has also been a strong play in South Alabama games. Out of their 6 games, 5 have finished below the posted total. The only OVER was in their win over FCS foe Jackson State.
Troy Trojans (2-3, 0-1 Sun Belt)
Troy was also off last week. They last played on Oct. 5th in a game they would like to forget. The Trojans were embarrassed 42-10 at Missouri. That was on the heels of a 43-50 loss at home to Arkansas State as a 7-point favorite in their Sun Belt opener.
Troy’s last win was at Akron back on Sept. 21, when they crushed the Zips 35-7 as a 18.5-point favorite. That’s the only cover for the Trojans on the season, as they are just 1-4 ATS. Their only win besides the lopsided victory against Akron was a 43-14 win at home against Campbell in the season opener.
Troy won 38-17 at South Alabama last year, easily covering as a 11-point favorite. It continued a back and forth affair. As these two have alternated wins since 2015. It also marked the fourth straight time that the road team won the game outright. While that streak continued, the Trojans cover snapped 3 straight covers by the Jaguars.
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: S Alabama +15
If you need action on this game, my lean would be to take the points with South Alabama. Even though Troy has a losing record at 2-3 and been a terrible bet this season, they are the much more familiar team to the public. Just last year the Trojans won 10-games and have upset the likes of Nebraska and LSU the past two seasons.
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South Alabama on the other hand is a team the public wants nothing to do with. The Jaguars are sitting at 1-5 with their only win against a FCS opponent. This is after they went just 3-9 last year and 4-8 in 2017. I got a hard time not thinking this line isn’t inflated in favor of Troy.
Just the simple fact that the public will be on Troy is enough to at least lean towards South Alabama. It’s not like the Jaguars haven’t been playing well. They only lost 13 at ULM (trailed by just 7 going in the 4th quarter) and should have won outright as a double-digit dog last time out against Georgia Southern.
Also, it seems that we get a lot lower scoring games with these weekday Sun Belt games. I think a lot of that has to do with the teams almost always coming off a bye, so they have had extra time to prepare, which favors the defense.
The big concern with South Alabama is definitely the lack of offensive fire-power. Jaguars haven’t scored more than 21 against a FBS opponent this season. With that said, Troy’s defense has not been good. The Trojans have allowed 40+ on 3 separate occasions. They are horrible against the pass, allowing 10.2 yards/pass attempt. They are also giving up 6.3 yards/play.
You also can’t ignore the history of the series. Road team has won outright each of the last four and South Alabama is 3-1 ATS during this stretch. This is not the same Troy team as years past. Give me the Jaguars +15!