The #22 overall UCF Knights (3-1) host the Connecticut Huskies (1-2) this weekend in an American East Conference matchup. Kickoff is set for 7:00 PM EST on Saturday, September 28th at Spectrum Stadium and the game will be televised on ESPN+.
Taking a look at the Week 5 college football odds, UCF opened as a massive 42.5-point home favorite earlier this week. That line hasn’t moved at all after early betting, as the Knights are currently listed at -42.5. The total for the game is sitting at 65.5 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: UCF vs Connecticut
Connecticut dropped back below .500 on the season last weekend, losing 38-3 on the road against Indiana to drop to 1-2 overall. The Huskies trailed 17-3 at the half and couldn’t find a way to recover down the stretch, giving up 21 unanswered points over the final two quarters. QB Jack Zergiotis really struggled against the Hoosiers, going 14/28 for 90 passing yards and no touchdowns while also getting picked off once. RB Kevin Mensah led the way on the ground but only managed 3.4 yards per carry. Cameron Ross hauled in three passes for a team-high 30 receiving yards, while Jay Rose had five receptions for 28 yards. As a whole, UConn gained under 150 yards of total offense and failed to find the end zone against a tough Indiana defense.
The Huskies also had a rough outing on the other side of the ball in Week 4, giving up over 350 yards of total offense and four touchdowns. Connecticut really struggled against the pass in particular, allowing Hoosiers QB Peyton Ramsey to pass for 247 yards and three touchdowns.
UCF finally lost a regular season game after an extremely lengthy unbeaten streak, falling by a single point against Pitt to drop to 3-1 overall. The Knights actually led 31-28 heading into the 4th quarter but couldn’t hold on down the stretch, getting outscored 7-3 over the final 15 minutes of the game. QB Dillon Gabriel wasn’t at his best despite throwing for 338 yards and two touchdowns, as he also gave up two costly interceptions. WR Gabriel Davis was definitely the star of the game on offense for UCF, exploding for 151 yards and two touchdowns on a game-high ten receptions. Overall, the offense generated more than 400 total yards and scored three touchdowns despite the loss.
The Knights defense certainly didn’t have their best outing against Pitt last weekend, giving up four touchdowns and well over 400 yards of total offense. UCF really struggled to contain the Panthers on the ground, surrendering almost 200 rushing yards.
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: UCF -42.5
Even though the Knights fell short in Week 4, I think they will rebound nicely in their first conference matchup of the season. UCF has been almost unstoppable offensively, averaging 47.5 points per game. While this massive 42.5 point spread certainly doesn’t scream value, the Knights appear to be the better play in this matchup considering how outmatched UConn is on both sides of the ball. The Huskies have now given up 30+ points in back to back games, which certainly doesn’t bode well heading into a meeting with one of the most talented offenses in the entire country here in Week 5.
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Connecticut has really struggled against the spread as of late, going just 1-4 ATS over their last five games. They are also just 1-2 ATS in their last three meetings with the Knights. UCF, on the other hand, is a very impressive 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games overall. They are also 8-2 ATS over their last ten games played in the month of September. If this spread balloons any higher, I will likely avoid this matchup altogether – however, I think I’ll take a stab with the Knights and lay the 42.5 points despite facing an American East Conference rival here on Saturday night. Give me UCF to cover at home!