The #15 UCF Knights travel to Dallas this weekend to take on the SMU Mustangs in AAC action. Kickoff will be at 7:15 PM EST on Saturday, November 4th from Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas. The game will be televised on ESPN2.
UCF enters this game as 13.5 point road favorites. Early betting has shifted the line slightly, as the Knights originally opened at -14. The over/under for the game is 74.5 points, one of the highest Week 10 totals on the board. Click here for a full list of Week 10 betting odds and links to game previews.
UCF vs SMU Betting Line & Game Preview
The Knights remained unbeaten on the season after crushing Austin Peay last Saturday 73-33. The lopsided victory moved the Knights record to an impressive 7-0, including going 4-0 against AAC opponents. UCF has been one of the offensive teams in all of college football, ranking 15th overall in the FBS with 313.1 passing yards per game. They are also ranked 26th in terms of rushing offense, as the Knights are currently averaging 216.6 yards on the ground per game. Most impressively, UCF is currently the best scoring offensive in the entire country – they are averaging an astronomical 49.6 points per game. QB McKenzie Milton has almost eclipsed 2,000 yards passing on the year while also adding 21 total touchdowns (19 passing, 2 rushing). On the other other side of the ball, Central Florida is allowing just 19.7 points per game on 348.3 yards per game. The Knights will look for a rebound performance defensively this weekend after some sloppy play against Austin Peay their last time out.
SMU has also been extremely impressive so far this season, winning four out of their past five games to sit at 6-2 on the year heading into Week 10. The Mustangs have already locked up their first Bowl appearance since 2012 and will be looking to pull off the upset this weekend. QB Ben Hicks has been fantastic, passing for 2,300+ yards and 19 touchdowns in just eight games. Hicks is the biggest reason why SMU is currently ranked 14th in terms of total passing yards per game (319.9) and 8th in scoring average (41.5 points per game). However, the Mustangs Achilles heel appears to be their weak defensive play. SMU is giving up an alarming average of 31.0 points on 439.6 total yards per game
Free NCAAF Betting Prediction: UCF -13.5
This should easily be one of the most entertaining games of the entire weekend. There should be a ton of big plays from both sides – which usually translates into a ton of scoring. I think laying the points and taking UCF to cover on the road is the best value in this particular spot.
SMU has looked abysmal defensively and I don’t think the offensive can quite keep up with Milton and Co. without a few key defensive stops. I don’t really see any way that the Mustangs can slow down the top scoring offense in the FBS. I know that UCF struggled on defense last week but that seems like a bit of an outlier from a unit that is currently ranked #33 overall in terms of total defense.
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The Knights are 3-0-1 ATS over their past 4 conference games and have won by at least three touchdowns in six out of their seven games thus far. Again, no team other than Navy has been able to stay within 27 points of Central Florida. The Knights are also 6-2-1 ATS in their past nine road games. SMU should put up a fight, but they are just 1-4 ATS in their past 5 conference games. I don’t think that they can stay within more than 15-20 points of this powerhouse UCF team by the end of the 4th quarter.