The UCF Knights (8-3) host the South Florida Bulls (4-7) on Friday for the 2019 edition of the “War on I-4” from Orlando. Kickoff is set for 12:00 PM EST on November 29th at Spectrum Stadium and the game will be nationally televised on ESPN.
Taking a look at the Week 14 college football odds, UCF opened as a 25.5-point home favorite earlier this week. The spread has come down by over a full point after early betting, as the Knights are currently available at -24. The total for the game is sitting at 62.5 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: UCF vs South Florida
South Florida lost their third straight game last weekend, getting crushed 49-10 at home by #17 overall Memphis to drop to 4-7 on the season overall. The Bulls gave up 21 unanswered points in the second quarter and never recovered, getting completely shut out on offense over the final 30 minutes of the game. QB Jordan McCloud didn’t do much through the air, going 5/14 for just 45 passing yards. Kelley Joiner Jr. led the way on the ground, rushing for 115 yards on a team-high 13 carries. Eddie McDoom also chipped in, making two catches for 40 yards. As a whole, South Florida barely gained over 150 total yards of offense and scored just a single touchdown in the blowout loss.
The Bulls were brutal on the other side of the ball against Memphis, getting lit up for close to 600 total yards of offense and seven touchdowns. South Florida had no answer for Tigers RB Patrick Taylor Jr. on the ground, allowing him to rack up 95 rushing yards and three touchdowns.
UCF has now won four out of their last five games after slipping by Tulane 34-31 on the road last weekend to improve to 8-3 on the season overall. The Knights scored ten unanswered points in the first quarter and managed to hold on down the stretch despite getting outscored 24-17 in the second half. QB Dillon Gabriel went 24/46 for 317 passing yards and a touchdown through the air while also adding 58 rushing yards on a team-high 12 carries on the ground. Marlon Williams led the way for the receiving corps, hauling in nine catches for 119 yards and a touchdown. Overall, UCF generated well over 450 total yards of offense and found the end zone four times in the win.
The Knights weren’t nearly as impressive defensively against Tulane, surrendering around 400 total yards of offense and three touchdowns. UCF couldn’t find a way to slow down Green Wave RB Corey Dauphine, as he averaged over five yards per carry and scored two touchdowns.
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: OVER 62.5
I’m not really seeing a ton of value on either side against the spread in this American Athletic Conference clash, as the number looks pretty efficient to me for the most part. While I would probably lean slightly towards laying the 24 points and taking a shot with the home favorite, the Knights below average play on defense has me at least somewhat concerned about the possibility of a backdoor cover during garbage time. Therefore, my favorite play in this particular spot is the OVER on 62.5 total points scored, as I would be fairly surprised if the Knights don’t score 40+ points on their own in this matchup.
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Central Florida has really been firing on all cylinders offensively as of late, scoring at least 31 points in five consecutive games. Even though the Bulls are nowhere near as dangerous on offense, they still managed to score 40+ points against UConn, East Carolina, and SC State. South Florida has also given up some big numbers on the scoreboard in several outings this season, as Wisconsin, SMU, and Memphis racked up at 45+ points against the Bulls. It is also important to note that the OVER has come through in two out of the last three meetings between these two AAC rivals. The total has also gone OVER in three out of Central Florida’s last four outings at Spectrum Stadium as well. Give me the OVER on 62.5 total points scored in what should be a fast-paced, entertaining matchup.